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2026-09-18 21:48:13
[ING Adjusts Forecasts, Expects One Rate Hike Each from the Fed and ECB Before Year-End] ⑴ ING now expects the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to each raise interest rates once before the end of this year. ⑵ This assessment differs from previous forecasts of maintaining unchanged interest rates. ⑶ The firm's economists noted in a report that Wednesday's Fed meeting and last week's ECB meeting indicated that the two central banks are unlikely to adopt the previously anticipated very accommodative policies. ⑷ They believe that both central banks are currently facing supply-side shocks caused by soaring energy prices, although the impact on the overall economy remains limited. ⑸ At the same time, the market still remembers the lessons of the sharp rise in inflation and the lagging monetary policy response in 2022. ⑹ Economists expect both central banks to likely raise interest rates in December. ⑺ From a market sentiment perspective, renewed expectations of rate hikes will support the local currency and suppress the bond market, but the growth prospects under the energy shock remain uncertain. ⑻ Subsequent attention should be paid to inflation data and statements from central bank officials to verify the probability of action in December. ⑼ Overall, the policy path is shifting from expectations of easing to cautious tightening.
