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[Surge in Diesel Prices Becomes a Major Problem for Republicans in the Midterm Elections] (1) The rising price of diesel is becoming a particularly thorny issue for Republicans. With only 45 days left until the midterm elections, soaring energy costs are worsening economic sentiment. (2) The national average price of diesel jumped 42 cents in the past week, mainly due to the ongoing U.S. war with Iran, although Trump has tried to blame the attack on energy facilities during the Russia-Ukraine war. As of Saturday, the average price of diesel was $6.50 per gallon, a record high, with no signs of easing as the winter heating season approaches. (3) The impact of diesel could be particularly severe, hitting rural voters and other key parts of the Republican base. Trump downplayed the concerns, telling voters in North Carolina that the price increase was a “very cheap price” to pay for the war with Iran and that prices would “plummet like a rocket flying backwards.” But analysts expect prices to remain high in the coming weeks: diesel could stay above $6, and $7 is not out of the question; gasoline could stay above $4. Hurricanes and other events could further worsen diesel and heating oil prices. (4) Diesel is a primary fuel for public transportation, trucking, and agriculture. Senate Majority Leader Thune said he was “willing to explore” an export ban on diesel if it “alleviates price pressures”; Interior Secretary Bergham said a ban on U.S. fuel or oil exports would likely not lower prices. (5) The rising diesel prices are the latest negative economic news that Republicans and the administration have to deal with ahead of the midterm elections. Despite Trump’s calls for interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday, seen as an admission that inflation continues to plague Americans. Democrats have been using rising energy prices to attack their Republican opponents in the campaign; Michigan Republican Senate candidate Rogers called for a suspension of state and federal gasoline taxes. (6) Recent polls show that voters’ patience with the economy is wearing thin, even among Republicans. A New York Times/Siena College poll found that only 29% of Republicans said the economy was better than a year ago, down from 72% in January. Republican strategists say voters will not ultimately make decisions based solely on diesel, but it is part of a larger narrative; presidential allies say supporters understand the war in Iraq, and Vice President Vance encouraged candidates to be “honest” with voters on affordability issues. (7) In an interview with Axios last Thursday, Trump said he had a “major decision” to make about the war on Iran, adding that “anything can happen here.” Strategists remain skeptical that any move to end the war before the midterm elections could change voters’ minds at this point; from an economic perspective, it may take too long for the country to get back on its feet.