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2026-09-21 09:48:11
Westpac: RBA Rate Hike Expected to Happen in September, Voting Expected to Be Divided (1) Westpac Chief Economist Lucie Ellis has moved her expectation for a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike forward to September, saying the central bank governor's statements have met the committee's conditions for further rate hikes set in August. (2) She acknowledges there are tactical reasons for waiting, including the release of the August monthly CPI the day after the meeting, and the potential for awkward public perception due to a slight easing of tensions in the Middle East, fuel consumption tax adjustments, or a weak employment report. However, she believes the weight of hawkish rhetoric outweighs these factors. (3) Westpac expects a divided vote due to differing views on trend productivity, labor supply, and the degree of labor market slack, while underemployment has risen sharply.
