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2026-09-21 19:50:10
[Gulf Exports Rely on Shuttle Tankers, Supply Shock Risk Accumulating] ⑴ The last lifeline for Gulf oil exports is now a fleet of tankers repeatedly navigating high-risk waters. ⑵ If this lifeline breaks, the oil market could face a greater supply shock. ⑶ Oil producers are using shuttle tankers to repeatedly transit the Strait of Hormuz, transporting crude oil to large mother ships waiting near Oman. ⑷ The mother ships then transport the oil to other import markets, without needing to enter the high-risk waters of Hormuz. ⑸ The strait is not physically blocked, and limited tanker traffic remains along the coast. ⑹ However, the risk has not disappeared; it has simply concentrated on the shuttle tankers. ⑺ This is a trade-off between shuttle tankers and the safety of mother ships; once the shuttle tankers are exhausted, oil flow will cease. ⑻ Costs are also soaring, with freight rates rising from approximately 2% to 3% of the value of crude oil before the conflict to over 25%. (9) Gulf oil-producing countries have absorbed some costs by increasing crude oil discounts, leading to higher delivery prices for refiners and demanding huge premiums from shipowners for risky operations. (10) The real danger lies in the fact that repeated attacks on shuttle tankers, disruptions to maritime transshipment, or rising insurance costs could force remaining operators out of business without the need to destroy mother ships or completely blockade the strait. (11) This last-ditch workaround could collapse if the shuttle fleet cannot continue operating. The market currently views the continued flow of oil as a sign of easing supply crisis, but this crude oil is being transported through an increasingly expensive and fragile shipping system, and the real supply shock may have only just begun.
