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2026-09-21 20:30:11
Bernstein lowers its 2030 gold price forecast to $5,600, but remains bullish on the long term. (1) Bernstein lowered its 2030 gold price forecast from $6,100 per ounce to $5,600, mainly due to a significantly tighter interest rate outlook since the beginning of the year, with real interest rates rising from about 1.7% in early March to about 2.7%. (2) Despite this, analyst Bob Brackett maintains his long-term bullish view on gold, believing that gold prices may continue to rise in an environment of slowly rising real interest rates. (3) Bernstein points out that gold ETF holdings have remained largely flat this year, while gold prices have remained resilient in a high-interest-rate environment. (4) The institution believes that continued central bank gold purchases remain the most important structural support; the gold allocation ratio of some large reserve-holding countries is still below 10%, and the process of transferring reserves to gold has not yet ended. (5) The main risks include a slowdown in central bank gold purchases and a weakening of safe-haven demand.
