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[Russian Wheat Export Prices Decline, September Shipment Forecasts Revised Upward] ⑴ Last week, Russian wheat export prices fell in tandem with global market trends. Data from one institution shows that the FOB price of wheat with a protein content of 12.5% shipped from two ports in northwestern Russia for November delivery dropped to around $268 per ton, a decrease of about 2% from the previous week. ⑵ Due to the continued closure of ports in southern Russia, most cargoes were diverted to the aforementioned two terminals. Shipments from the Sea of Azov-Black Sea Basin have been stalled since mid-August due to attacks on ships and damage to docks. ⑶ The head of consulting firm SovEcon stated that the market is still ignoring the supply shock from the Black Sea, but this situation cannot continue indefinitely. ⑷ Shipment forecasts are diverging: IKAR estimates that Russian wheat exports in September have exceeded 2 million tons, SovEcon has raised its September forecast from 1.8 million tons to 2.1 million tons, and Rusagrotrans has increased its forecast from over 1.7 million tons to 2.2 million tons, driven by increased exports to multiple destinations, with approximately 1.1 million tons exported in the first half of the month. (5) However, SovEcon points out that Russian wheat exports in the first three months of the 2026/27 season (starting July 1) are estimated at 5.4 million tons, a 53% decrease year-on-year and 58% lower than the five-year average of 12.9 million tons, potentially marking the lowest quarterly level since the 2010/11 season. (6) Data from the Russian Ministry of Agriculture shows that as of September 18, grain harvest reached 120 million tons, including over 90 million tons of wheat, with yields higher than the previous year; the winter crop planting area exceeded 19 million hectares, with nearly 6 million hectares already completed. (7) Regarding other varieties, the domestic price of grade 3 wheat in the European part of Russia was 8,300 rubles per ton, a decrease of 125 rubles week-on-week; sunflower seeds were 20,300 rubles, a decrease of 200 rubles; sunflower oil was 85,675 rubles, a decrease of 9,325 rubles; soybeans were 24,600 rubles, unchanged; and white sugar in southern Russia was $526.56 per ton, a decrease of $6.93. (8) Overall, prices are declining while export pace is improving, but cumulative quarterly exports remain at multi-year lows. Going forward, attention should be paid to the recovery progress of southern ports and the continued constraints on shipments due to Black Sea logistics risks.