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2026-09-21 21:28:11
[Bessant Says Oil Supply Will Be More Ample After Middle East Conflict] ⑴ US Treasury Secretary Bessant said in an interview on Monday that once the US emerges from the Middle East conflict, the future oil market supply will be more abundant than before, and interest rates should also decline. ⑵ Bessant pointed out that the correlation between US 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds, crude oil prices, and crack spreads has reached one of its highest levels ever. ⑶ Regarding the Fed's interest rate hike decision at last week's meeting, Bessant did not comment on whether he agreed with the decision, but said that he and US President Trump have full confidence in Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. ⑷ Bessant also stated that core inflation has been very moderate, and all increases are reflected in the overall inflation data. ⑸ Overall, Bessant's remarks link the oil market supply outlook to geopolitical conflicts, suggesting that energy price pressures may ease after the conflicts end, thus creating conditions for lower interest rates. The subsequent development of the Middle East situation and the transmission of crude oil crack spread trends to inflation expectations need to be monitored.
