The US dollar rose to its highest level against the Canadian dollar since August 5 during Asian trading on Tuesday, but upward momentum weakened after breaking through the 1.4000 level, and the exchange rate remains below 1.4050. The market is currently reassessing the monetary policy paths of the US and Canada, with the US dollar's interest rate advantage and the Canadian dollar's support from Canadian energy exports creating a direct tug-of-war, keeping USD/CAD in a slightly bullish but high-level consolidation pattern in the short term. The rebound in crude oil prices from near a one-and-a-half-week low is a key factor supporting the Canadian dollar. The Canadian economy is closely linked to energy exports, and stabilizing oil prices typically improve market demand for Canadian dollar assets. Meanwhile, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem's latest remarks signaled a hawkish stance. He stated that if energy prices remain high for an extended period, it could push inflation back up, forcing the Bank of Canada to weigh maintaining current interest rates against further tightening. This statement indicates that the impact of energy prices on Canadian monetary policy is once again attracting market attention. If crude oil prices strengthen again and drive up inflation expectations, the Bank of Canada may have more room to maintain its tightening policy, thus providing some support for the Canadian dollar. However, oil prices are currently in a correction phase after falling from previous highs, and the energy-side support for the Canadian dollar remains uncertain. At the same time, the Canadian economy also faces external policy uncertainty. Macklem pointed out that changes in US policy have increased uncertainty for businesses and could affect the previous recovery process of the Canadian economy. Tariffs between the US and Canada have further intensified market concerns about North American economic growth and supply chains, leading investors to remain cautious about the Canadian dollar. Regarding the US dollar, the recent policy signals from the Federal Reserve remain hawkish. Although the market generally expects the Fed's adjustment this time to be limited, the latest interest rate forecasts show that policymakers still anticipate further room for rate hikes this year. Therefore, the market has not fully repriced the dollar according to the logic of "ending the tightening cycle after one rate hike," but continues to give the dollar a certain interest rate premium. The dollar's strength is also affected by the situation in the Middle East. When geopolitical risks escalate, the dollar's safe-haven status often attracts capital inflows, further limiting the Canadian dollar's performance. However, the recent decline in oil prices has reduced some inflationary pressure, and the yield on US Treasury bonds has also fallen somewhat, making it difficult for dollar bulls to significantly expand their positions. From a daily chart perspective, USD/CAD currently maintains a relatively strong pattern, with the price trading above the 100-day simple moving average at 1.3953 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3992, indicating that the bulls still hold the short-term initiative. However, the exchange rate is approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.4052, which constitutes the most direct technical resistance at present. If the price breaks through 1.4052, the next target is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.4138. On the downside, the first support level to watch is 1.3992, with further support at 1.3953. A break below this area would target the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.3932. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the upward momentum of USD/CAD slowed after breaking through 1.4000, indicating significant profit-taking pressure around 1.4050. If the price can hold above the 1.3990-1.4000 area and break above 1.4052 again, the bullish structure is likely to continue, pushing further towards 1.4138. However, if the price fails to break through the 1.4050-1.4052 area and breaks below 1.3992 again, a technical pullback may occur, with the next support level at 1.3953. Overall, the current market is still in a high-level, slightly bullish consolidation phase. The direction of the breakout from the 1.3990 to 1.4050 range will be an important point to watch in the short term. The USD/CAD pair is currently in a phase of tug-of-war between a strong US dollar and the Canadian dollar's energy attributes. Hawkish interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and safe-haven demand continue to support the US dollar, while rebounding oil prices and the Bank of Canada's focus on energy inflation risks provide some buffer for the Canadian dollar. In the short term, 1.4052 is a significant resistance level for further upward movement, while 1.3992 and 1.3953 are key support areas. The subsequent movement of crude oil prices, interest rate expectations in both countries, and changes in the North American policy environment will continue to determine the main direction of the USD/CAD pair.