According to the latest OECD outlook report, global investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure effectively offset downward economic pressure, driving this year's growth slightly better than expected. The global economy in 2026 presents a differentiated pattern of "resilient recovery but lurking risks." Global economic growth is projected to slow to 2.9% from 3.4% in 2025, a slight upward revision from the previous forecast of 2.8%. This recovery is mainly driven by the expansion of computing centers and chip production capacity in some global economies, relying on AI investment to compensate for weak consumption and using technology exports to stabilize the economic fundamentals. However, risks such as energy volatility, extreme weather, and lower-than-expected returns from AI continue to accumulate, posing hidden dangers for subsequent economic recovery.

Multiple risks combined have led to a continued downward revision of growth expectations for 2027.

Short-term growth resilience is unlikely to offset medium- to long-term structural pressures, leading the OECD to lower its 2027 global economic growth forecast to 3.0%, down from the previous 3.1%. Middle East geopolitical conflicts are pushing up commodity prices, continuing to suppress the pace of global recovery. The report points out that if four major risks—energy market volatility, El Niño extreme weather, rising public debt yields, and lower-than-expected returns on AI investments—converge, they could lead to a 0.7 percentage point decrease in global economic growth and a 1.1 percentage point increase in inflation in 2027, creating significant stagflationary pressure.

Rising global inflation presents a dilemma for central bank monetary policy.

Global inflationary pressures continue to rise, further amplifying the risk of economic recession. The OECD has raised its 2026 G20 inflation forecast to 4.1% and its 2027 forecast to 3.6%. Persistently high prices are making it difficult for central banks to balance "curbing inflation" with "stabilizing growth," and subsequent interest rate adjustments may further suppress consumption and investment, exacerbating global economic uncertainty.

Major economies are showing divergent trends, with uneven recovery performance.

The pace of recovery varies significantly across global economies. In the US, AI investment is supporting the economy, with growth projected at 2.2% and 2.1% in 2026 and 2027 respectively. Inflation is gradually declining, but energy and tariff pressures continue to squeeze market activity. China's economy is steadily slowing, with growth rates of 4.5% and 4.2% over the past two years. Capacity controls are suppressing investment, while consumption is only moderately recovering. The Eurozone is experiencing prolonged low growth, maintaining a 1.0% growth rate over the past two years. Low natural gas inventories and high interest rates continue to drag down the economy. Brazil has benefited this year from interest rate cuts and a recovery in domestic demand, with its growth forecast revised upwards to 2.0%, but growth momentum is expected to decline to 1.9% in 2027.

A microcosm of small and medium-sized economies: Short-term stabilization unlikely to reverse the recessionary trend.

Most vulnerable economies are currently exhibiting a pattern of "minor recovery followed by overall contraction," with Puerto Rico's economic situation being highly representative. In June and July 2026, local economic indicators rebounded continuously, with slight improvements in manufacturing employment, exports, and non-farm payrolls, but a structural recovery was not achieved. Overall economic activity in the first seven months remained weaker than the same period last year, continuing its decline from the peak in October 2025. With leading indicators continuing to weaken, the business climate diffusion index falling below the contraction threshold, coupled with pressures such as soaring diesel prices, high inflation, increased bankruptcies, and declining sales, Puerto Rico has entered a substantial, albeit mild, recessionary cycle, a common predicament for small and medium-sized economies globally.

Risks are spreading globally, and many countries' economies are facing downward pressure.

The risk of economic downturn and recession is not a localized phenomenon. Geopolitical conflicts have led to deep economic contractions in many Middle Eastern countries, with Iran, Iraq, and Qatar all experiencing significant negative growth in 2026. Developed economies in Europe and East Asia are also under pressure. The stagflation pattern in the Eurozone has solidified, the UK is experiencing sluggish growth, and Japanese SMEs are facing increasing operational pressure and a weak industrial recovery. The scope of the global economic downturn continues to expand.

Overall Outlook: AI dividends are limited, and the risk of decline remains in the long term.

Overall, the AI industry boom provided temporary support for the global economy in 2026, preventing a full-blown slowdown. However, the intertwined risks of energy crisis, geopolitical conflicts, high inflation, and investment uncertainty make the foundation for recovery extremely fragile. Slow stagflation in developed economies, declining growth in emerging economies, and continued contraction in small and medium-sized economies all indicate that downward pressure on the global economy has not yet dissipated. 2027 will be a critical year for global economic pressure, and the risk of recession will continue to dominate the global economic trend.