Experts are skeptical that a diesel export ban could meaningfully lower U.S. fuel prices, while the Trump administration has sent mixed signals on whether it will consider the move. Analysts interviewed by the media said a complete ban might provide short-term relief in parts of the U.S., but could have undesirable long-term consequences. Diesel prices have risen to record highs, with the average U.S. diesel price at $6.52 per gallon and gasoline at $4.47 per gallon as of Wednesday (September 23). High diesel prices have led to increased calls for an export ban, particularly from Republican leaders in agricultural states, but Republicans in oil states have dampened the idea.

Prices may be pressured in the short term, but refinery reactions could push up prices for other fuels.

Patrick De Haan, head of oil analysis at GasBuddy, said a complete 90-day export ban could put downward pressure on prices in the short term. “But as prices fall, refineries will likely react, and how they react could vary greatly.” He noted that if refineries choose to reduce crude oil processing, it could ultimately push up prices for other fuels. “Lowering refinery utilization to reduce diesel production also means a more significant impact on gasoline production, which could push up gasoline prices.”

The impact may be regional; prices may actually be higher on the East and West coasts.

Experts also stated that any impact on diesel prices is likely to be primarily regional. Gbenga Ajilore, chief economist at the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities and a former Biden administration official, said the export ban means all supply remains in the United States, which should theoretically lower U.S. diesel prices, but due to structural reasons, it will only temporarily reduce prices in Gulf Coast states. “Because we don’t have… a good way to transport diesel nationwide, the West Coast and East Coast won’t see any diesel price relief because those areas import from overseas. We are reducing global supply, the global diesel market will surge, and therefore diesel will become more expensive on the East Coast and West Coast.”

Conflicting Government Signals: Trump Supports, Energy Secretary Says "It Won't Work"

Trump said on Tuesday at the United Nations in New York that he supported the idea of a ban: “I’ve said, ‘We’re not going to export diesel. We produce a lot of diesel.’” However, Energy Secretary Wright said on Wednesday that the government was not prepared to ban exports, calling the idea “absolutely not going to work.” Reports have surfaced that the government plans a 90-day ban, but the White House has denied these reports.

Refineries have limited flexibility, and a complete ban could push up gasoline prices.

S&P Global analysts said U.S. refineries have limited flexibility in switching between fuels. “Refineries aren’t very flexible in terms of production conversion. So you can only reduce diesel output to a certain extent and switch to gasoline and jet fuel.” They said refineries could eventually cut operations across the board, potentially leading to higher gasoline prices. However, they said some export restrictions—such as limiting U.S. diesel exports to last year’s levels—would be less disruptive. DeHaan also noted that other policy proposals are under discussion, including “taxing diesel exports and using the tax revenue to subsidize U.S. prices.” He said, “The discussion about an export ban is more like a sledgehammer; the government needs to replace it with a tool more like a utility knife.”

Editor's Summary

Record-high diesel prices have intensified policy discussions. While a complete export ban might temporarily lower prices regionally, limited refinery flexibility, transportation bottlenecks, and global market linkages could lead to higher gasoline prices and other negative consequences. Significant disagreements exist within the government, and the final policy will need to balance short-term political demands with long-term market stability.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why did US diesel prices rise to a record high of $6.53 per gallon? A: The latest data shows that as of the week ending September 21, 2026, the EIA reported an average US highway diesel price of $6.529 per gallon, a record high. This was mainly due to geopolitical conflicts leading to tighter global refining and supply, domestic inventories below seasonal averages, and support from transportation and agricultural demand. Year-on-year, this represents a significant increase of approximately $2.78, far exceeding the level of approximately $4.48 for regular gasoline, putting significant cost pressure on industries reliant on diesel. Q: Can a comprehensive diesel export ban effectively lower US fuel prices? A: Experts believe that in the short term, it may have some price-suppressing effect in producing areas such as the Gulf Coast, as supply remains domestic. However, the long-term effect is questionable: refineries may reduce operating rates, leading to a simultaneous reduction in gasoline and jet fuel supply and pushing up prices; the East and West Coasts, due to transportation restrictions and import dependence, may find it difficult to alleviate the situation and may even face higher prices due to reduced global supply. A comprehensive ban has been likened to a "sledgehammer," lacking precision. Q: Why is the Trump administration's stance on the export ban issue mixed? A: Trump himself has publicly expressed support for restricting diesel exports, stating that domestic production is sufficient. Energy Secretary Wright, however, has explicitly opposed a complete ban, calling it "unworkable" and potentially driving up the prices of other fuels, advocating for increased domestic supply through voluntary cooperation. The White House has denied reports of a specific plan for a 90-day ban, indicating internal disagreements and that the policy is still under evaluation. Q: Why are refineries finding it difficult to adjust production to cope with export restrictions? A: Analysts such as S&P Global point out that refineries have limited flexibility in switching between diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel, making it impossible to significantly reduce diesel output without affecting other products. Being forced to cut operations across the board could simultaneously drive up the prices of multiple fuels. Partial export restrictions or tax subsidies are seen as less disruptive alternatives. Q: Why are the regional impacts of the export ban so significantly different? A: The U.S. lacks sufficient inter-regional diesel transportation infrastructure. Production concentrations along the Gulf Coast may benefit in the short term from increased supply. The East and West Coasts rely more on imports; a domestic ban would reduce global availability, driving up international prices and consequently increasing diesel costs in these regions. This structural factor limits the effectiveness of a nationwide price mitigation measure.