On Friday (September 25) during the early US trading session, spot gold remained firm, while spot silver rose sharply. Hopes for a renewed ceasefire between the US and Iran pushed oil prices down; however, persistently high US Treasury yields, coupled with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, suggest that precious metals are likely to close lower this week. Spot gold traded around $4290.60 per ounce, up 0.39% on the day; spot silver traded around $64.446, up 0.96% on the day. This week, strong US economic activity data, a decline in initial jobless claims, and positive housing data have led the market to believe that the Fed's September rate hike is not the end of this tightening cycle, with trading positions generally favoring further monetary policy tightening. Market pricing indicates a roughly 71% probability of another 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in October; the dollar index retreated after hitting a two-month high, currently trading around 100.94; the 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 5.1%. US durable goods orders for August were almost flat, while July's data was revised down to a 0.9% increase, exceeding market expectations of a 0.4% decline; durable goods orders excluding transportation rose 0.3% month-on-month, compared to a 0.7% increase in July. This stronger-than-expected economic data is generally bearish for gold. Final consumer confidence and inflation expectations data will be released at 10:00 AM Eastern Time, with the market closely watching whether stronger demand for goods will give the Fed more room to maintain its tightening policy. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the US-Iran rivalry remain the core risks to the crude oil market, but recent market developments indicate that diplomatic efforts have alleviated supply concerns to some extent. In New York, US and Iranian negotiators are discussing a phased solution to the conflict, which includes Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the US lifting its economic blockade against Iran. Meanwhile, the Houthi rebels continue their attacks on Saudi Arabia, threatening regional crude oil supplies. Brent crude was trading around $98.22 per barrel, down 8.42%; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading around $92.59, down 2.14%. The decline in crude oil prices will marginally weaken the inflationary momentum pushing up US Treasury yields and the dollar, which is beneficial for gold; however, the lingering shipping risk premium continues to support safe-haven buying of precious metals. Global stock markets were relatively strong before the US stock market opened, with buying in the artificial intelligence sector offsetting market concerns about oil prices, US Treasury yields, and Middle East geopolitical risks. Gold Technical Analysis The next upside target for spot gold bulls: to push the price above the $4304.00-$4345.00 resistance zone; a successful break above this level would target $4396.00, followed by $4400.00. The short-term downside target for bears: a break below $4245.00; a deeper downside target is $4216.00, followed by the $4181.00-$4216.00 range. First resistance level: $4304.00; second resistance level: $4345.00; first support level: $4245.00; second support level: $4216.00. Silver Technical Analysis The next upside target for spot silver bulls is to push the price above the $64.920-$65.830 range; a break above this range would target $67.231, then $68.000. The short-term downside target for bears is a break below $62.750; a deeper downside target is $62.350, followed by $61.460. First resistance is at $64.920, second resistance at $65.830; first support is at $62.750, second support at $62.350.