Spot gold rebounded on Friday (European and American trading sessions), currently trading around 4296. While we previously warned of gold's darkest hour, the trend wasn't actually weak. Gold maintained a generally downward pressure this week, with the market consistently pricing in three major negative factors: sticky inflation, economic resilience, and expectations of a Fed rate hike. US Treasury yields continued to rise, with the 30-year yield hitting a more than 20-year high and the 10-year yield holding above the key 5% level. Gold, with its non-interest-bearing nature, continued to be pressured by rising opportunity costs, completely locking in any upside potential and fully releasing bearish sentiment in the market.

The macroeconomic logic is strengthened: economic resilience coupled with strong capital expenditure supports expectations of tightening.

Recent US economic data continues to confirm the resilience of the economy. The market expects non-farm payrolls to increase by 100,000 in September and the unemployment rate to remain low, indicating a generally robust labor market. Meanwhile, August's US durable goods orders data showed structural strength: while overall orders were weak due to a drag from transportation orders, non-defense core capital expenditure orders excluding aircraft significantly exceeded expectations, highlighting the resilience of corporate investment demand. This reflects that the US real economy has not cooled down, further supporting the market judgment that "the economy is still relatively hot, and inflation is unlikely to decline rapidly," providing fundamental support for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.

The Federal Reserve has shifted its stance to hawkish again: from ignoring supply shocks to being wary of deeply entrenched inflation.

New York Fed President Williams' latest speech became the core anchor of this week's macroeconomic outlook, completely correcting previous market perceptions. Williams explicitly stated that the Fed will no longer simply "see through and ignore" short-term inflationary disturbances, but must be wary of persistent supply shocks solidifying inflation expectations. Current inflationary pressures do not stem from the labor market, but from geopolitical supply shocks such as oil prices, tariff costs, and structural demand squeezes from the AI industry. The market's policy focus has completely shifted to supply-side inflation risks, and Williams' direct statement that another rate hike before the end of the year is reasonable further strengthens market tightening expectations, solidifying the bearish logic behind the current weakness in gold prices. Currently, the market is pricing in a Fed rate hike in October exceeding 60%.

Market fundamentals: Gold has been under sustained and deep pressure, and the negative factors have been fully priced in.

In summary, gold experienced a typical week of market suppression driven by expectations: all negative factors were priced in – sticky inflation, strong economic data, hawkish official speeches, soaring US Treasury yields, and rising expectations of interest rate hikes. Several days of short-selling pricing have fully digested short-term negative sentiment, and the downward momentum in gold prices is gradually weakening, resulting in a very tight price action.

Next week is Super Data Week: Key data will be centrally deployed, ushering in a validation window.

Next week, the market will face a super-testing cycle of global macroeconomic data, with a flurry of important data releases including CPI from multiple countries, US PCE inflation data, global PMI, and US non-farm payrolls. The market's pre-emptive expectations of "high inflation, strong employment, and continued interest rate hikes" will be put to the test by concrete data. This is also the core turning point for the short-term shift in gold's market structure: the market is no longer trading on expectations but beginning to realize them.

Market Outlook: With all negative factors priced in, gold is poised for a "spring-like" recovery.

The current gold price movement perfectly follows the spring principle: the tighter and longer the previous bearish pressure, the greater the rebound after the data release. All bearish narratives have been fully priced in, leaving no room for new, unexpectedly bearish factors. Even if next week's data remains relatively strong, it will only be a realization of existing expectations and unlikely to further suppress gold prices. Once inflation marginally declines, employment data cools, and supply shocks ease, the continuously suppressed gold will quickly trigger short covering, valuation repair, and capital repatriation. Overall, the downside for gold in the short term is limited. Next week, a week of major data releases, will likely see a style shift, with the market transitioning from "continuous bearish pressure" to a spring-like recovery with a slight upward bias after the release of negative news. Technically: Pay attention to the descending wedge pattern formed by the neckline of a head and shoulders top and the descending resistance line, a relatively common bullish bottoming pattern. (Spot gold daily chart, source: EasyTrade) At 21:19 Beijing time, spot gold is currently trading at $4291 per ounce.