Gold and silver prices rose in early U.S. trading on Thursday (October 1). Weaker-than-expected inflation data cooled market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October compared to earlier this week, but high initial jobless claims data and high U.S. Treasury yields limited the upside for precious metals. Spot gold traded around $4,168.08 per ounce, up 0.27% on the day; spot silver traded around $61.101, up 1.2%. The market is clearly in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears: the probability of a short-term Fed rate hike has declined, but the long-term yield environment remains tight. The US labor market remains resilient, with unemployment remaining low, and the market cannot derive a clear dovish interpretation from the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data. Currently, market pricing indicates a 37% probability of a Fed rate hike in October, far lower than the approximately 70% level earlier this week. However, influenced by energy inflation, concerns about the fiscal deficit, and large-scale debt issuance, the 10-year Treasury yield touched around 5.34%, and the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5.68%, putting pressure on long-term interest rates. The ISM Manufacturing Index will be released at 10:00 AM Eastern Time, and the September non-farm payroll report will be released at 8:30 AM on Friday. If the ISM price sub-index is strong, or the non-farm payroll data exceeds expectations, the upward trend in yields will continue to suppress gold prices; if the labor data weakens, it will support the view that even with the inflationary risks from oil prices, the Fed can still postpone rate hikes. The unresolved situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the US-Iran conflict continues to push up oil prices and thus transmit inflationary pressures. Iranian officials said Wednesday they had received a formal response from the United States to its latest proposal to end the seven-month-long conflict, but there was no confirmation that the US had accepted Iran's conditions or would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Previously, US President Trump had rejected Iran's earlier proposal that Iran would reopen the strait within a week if the US met some of its conditions. Brent crude traded around $100.14 a barrel, while WTI crude was at $90.75 a barrel. Despite the partial resumption of oil shipments in the Gulf region, oil prices remained high due to persistent inflation concerns. Geopolitical tensions themselves provide support for gold; however, if stronger oil prices push up the dollar and raise US Treasury yields, then geopolitical factors will turn into a negative factor for gold. New York WTI crude rose to around $90.75 a barrel; Brent crude was around $100.14 a barrel; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield was around 5.3%; and the dollar index strengthened, near its year-to-date high. Gold Technical Analysis: The next upside target for spot gold bulls is to push the price above the $4190.00-$4210.63 resistance zone. A successful break above this level would target $4238.00, followed by $4254.44. The short-term downside target for bears is a break below $4160.00, with further downside targets at $4112.00, followed by $4073.00. First resistance is at $4190.00, followed by $4210.63; first support is at $4160.00, followed by $4112.00. Silver Technical Analysis: The next upside target for spot silver bulls is to push the price above the $61.720-$62.0686 range. A break above this level would target $62.8338, followed by a move towards the 50-day moving average at $63.8900. The downside target for the bears is a break below $60.639, with a deeper target of $59.960, followed by $58.940. First resistance is at $61.720, then $62.069; first support is at $60.639, then $59.960.