Gold prices traded in a range on Thursday, with a strong dollar and persistently high US Treasury yields limiting upside potential. Spot gold traded around $4,171, up 0.35% on the day, as the market interpreted the latest US economic data and assessed the future direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The US dollar index (DXY) hovered around 102.14; the benchmark yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was around 5.22%, having previously touched 5.34%, a new high since 2002. Higher Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold; a stronger dollar also makes it more expensive for buyers using other currencies to purchase gold. US manufacturing activity remained resilient in September, but the pace of growth slowed slightly. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 54.5 from 54.6, below the market expectation of 55.0. Meanwhile, the Prices Paid Index surged to 77.9 from 71.1, far exceeding the expected 72.3, indicating that factories continue to face significant cost pressures. Other data released on Thursday showed that the fundamentals of the US labor market remain robust. For the week ending September 26, initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 197,000, below the market expectation of 200,000, compared to 198,000 in the previous week; the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims also fell to 200,000 from 202,500. This followed Wednesday's ADP employment report showing that U.S. private sector employment increased by 90,000 in September, exceeding the expected 70,000 and significantly accelerating from the 36,000 new jobs added in August. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated on Thursday that "a 4.1% unemployment rate is at a good level, and the labor market is healthy," while noting "strong consumer spending across the country." Kashkari added, "We will take all necessary measures to bring inflation to our target level," but also cautioned that "continued rate hikes will put differentiated pressure on different sectors of the economy." However, influenced by Wednesday's weaker-than-expected U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data, the market has already lowered its expectations for a Fed rate hike this month. The core PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%; the core PCE annual rate remained unchanged at 3.0%, below the market expectation of 3.3%. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders currently believe there is about a 36% probability of a rate hike at the Fed's October 27-28 meeting, compared to 70% earlier this week. This dovish repricing in the market provided some support for gold prices, but traders have not ruled out the possibility of another Fed rate hike later this year. Upward revisions to US economic data demonstrate the resilience of the world's largest economy. The US second-quarter annualized GDP growth rate was 2.2%, higher than economists' expectations of 1.5%. Strong economic resilience coupled with a robust labor market provides the Fed with more room to maneuver in combating inflation—current inflation remains above the 2% policy target. Meanwhile, negotiations between the US and Iran regarding the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have failed to make substantial progress, pushing up oil prices and maintaining upward inflation risks, which also provides a realistic basis for the Fed to tighten monetary policy. In summary, the Fed's hawkish policy expectations, a strong dollar, and persistently high US Treasury yields remain the core negative factors suppressing gold prices. Traders are awaiting Friday's non-farm payroll (NFP) report for new directional guidance for gold prices. Technical analysis: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend. (Spot Gold Daily Chart Source: EasyForex) On the daily chart, spot gold maintains a short-term bearish bias, with the price below the 20-period Bollinger Band simple moving average at $4301. The price is also significantly constrained by the upper Bollinger Band at $4471, limiting any potential rebound. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 40, and the MACD indicator is in negative territory, indicating limited upward momentum and a general pullback. On the downside, the first support level is at the lower Bollinger Band at $4131, followed by the $4100 support level. If bearish pressure intensifies, the price may test the $4000 level. On the upside, if the price attempts to rebound, it will first encounter resistance at the 20-period Bollinger Band at $4301, followed by the upper Bollinger Band at $4471. Only a sustained hold above the key structural resistance level of $4700 will form a clear bullish reversal signal.