The pound/dollar exchange rate continues to face significant depreciation pressure. However, we are now observing whether the underlying support levels can withstand the test. For now, the non-farm payroll data will be a key indicator capable of shaking the market. For the past six months or so, the 1.32 to 1.3150 range has acted as support. It's worth noting that the stochastic oscillator is currently oversold. While the clear crossover signal I've been hoping for hasn't appeared yet, the indicator's value is at a very low level. At this level, a rebound is likely. All else being equal, the non-farm payroll data is crucial. The market has already priced in the non-farm payroll report. The stronger-than-expected ADP non-farm payroll data has led to a new assessment of the resilience of the US labor market. Traders are betting on a cooling employment trend while simultaneously wary of stronger-than-expected employment data further increasing the probability of a Fed rate hike. Fluctuations in US Treasury yields will directly impact the GBP/USD exchange rate. If the employment data is weak, traders may expect the Fed to lower interest rates. In the event of weaker-than-expected employment data, I might choose to buy related assets. I will certainly be closely watching Friday's market movements, as Friday's data will provide more information about the inflation situation. For example, recent inflation data has been weak, with the PCE index falling short of expectations while GDP data has exceeded expectations. Despite a slight decline in core PCE, its absolute level remains significantly higher than the Fed's 2% inflation target. A single month's cooling of inflation is insufficient to dispel market concerns about the Fed restarting tightening. Meanwhile, the upward revision of US GDP confirms the economy's strong resilience against recession. This contradictory combination of economic resilience and inflation stickiness has exacerbated the divergence between bulls and bears in the dollar, causing the pound/dollar pair to oscillate within a range, struggling to establish a clear trend. Nevertheless, I believe that a clear signal could improve market conditions. The Bank of England's stance is somewhat more dovish than the Fed's. We know that three members voted for a rate cut at the last meeting, so we will continue to monitor developments. Domestic inflation in the UK still faces upside risks. Energy prices are being driven by geopolitical conflicts, pushing up imported inflation, and the stickiness of service sector prices remains, which constrains the Bank of England's easing space. This has caused internal divisions within the Bank of England, with dovish members hoping for rate cuts to support the economy, while others are concerned about a rebound in inflation and oppose premature easing. The pound lacks a unified monetary policy driver and is more passively following the dollar's fluctuations. However, in the short term, the market is currently at a crucial turning point. (GBP/USD Daily Chart Source: EasyForex) I will continue to monitor market dynamics to see if the price will rebound here; it may rise to 1.33, or even further to 1.34. If the price falls from here, it is likely to drop to the 1.30 level. Besides the central banks and economic data from Europe and the US, the market is also pricing in the potential risks of the UK's fiscal budget at the end of October. Short positions in GBP options have increased. If the exchange rate breaks below key support, the downward logic towards the 1.30 target will be further strengthened; conversely, if the 1.315-1.32 support zone holds, coupled with a weakening dollar, the bulls will have a chance to launch an upward attack to test the 1.33 level. At this stage, it is advisable to wait for the price to trigger the preset price level before entering the market, and not to bet on the direction in advance. Risk Warning: The above is only a technical and fundamental analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Forex trading involves high risk; please manage your positions and risks accordingly.