The US Treasury market is currently in the midst of a significant yield upward cycle. The two-year Treasury yield is hovering below 4.8%, while the ten-year yield is around 5.22%, a slight decline from the 24-year high reached this week, but overall upward pressure has not fundamentally eased. Against this backdrop, the market is paying close attention to Friday's US non-farm payroll report. However, non-farm payroll data is no longer the core variable driving yield trends, but rather just one of many influencing factors. Its marginal effect has significantly decreased, and even if the data shows a moderate slowdown, it is unlikely to significantly alter the Fed's interest rate hike expectations and the pricing logic of the bond market. Bloomberg reports that bond traders' bets on continued Fed rate hikes are so heavy that even expected slowdowns in job growth are unlikely to significantly alter the market outlook. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict that September's nonfarm payrolls will increase by approximately 90,000, down from 162,000 in the previous month. However, this level is roughly in line with the year-to-date monthly average, still pointing to a continued strong labor market. It is this "not weak" expectation that gives the Fed room to continue tightening monetary policy, especially given that inflation has been above target for five consecutive years and has risen above 3% again this year. Steve Booth, head of investment-grade bonds at T. Rowe Price Group, is particularly direct: "You might need close to zero or even negative—I think there needs to be a negative surprise in the wage data, and the standard for the labor market to be a catalyst for this rebound is actually quite high." This statement accurately summarizes the current market's threshold shift. In the past few years, nonfarm payroll data often directly triggered sharp fluctuations: stronger-than-expected data would quickly push up rate hike expectations and yields, while weaker-than-expected data could trigger safe-haven buying. But now, this transmission mechanism has clearly become less pronounced. The market's decreased sensitivity to employment data means that even if Friday's data is slightly below expectations, it will be difficult to trigger a significant rebound in Treasury bonds unless there is an extreme scenario of near-zero or even negative growth, accompanied by a significant slowdown in wage growth. Currently, multiple structural forces are driving yields upward. First, oil prices continue to hover near $100 per barrel, and the lack of clear signs of an end to the Iran war means that the supporting effect of energy costs on inflation is unlikely to subside quickly. Second, the federal government's massive deficit spending continues to inject liquidity into the economy, while the artificial intelligence boom further amplifies investment and demand expansion. These factors together create a picture of a "steady expansion," making it difficult to reverse overall overheating pressures even if the job market experiences a mild cooling. Thursday's rebound in the US Treasury market further confirms the dominance of factors other than non-farm payrolls. The selling pressure eased somewhat that day, mainly due to risk aversion triggered by rising European debt burdens, with funds flowing into US Treasuries seeking a safe haven. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson stated that they recommend policymakers take more time to carefully consider whether to raise interest rates further. These external and communicative factors, rather than changes in US employment or inflation data themselves, are the key triggers for the short-term rebound. Analysts clearly point out that the rebound is not significantly related to a fundamental shift in the US economic outlook or an easing of upward pressure on yields. The continued pressures from oil prices, deficits, AI, and inflation continue to fuel higher yields. Futures market pricing also reflects this continuation of the logic. While traders have slightly lowered their expectations for the magnitude of recent rate hikes and anticipate no further action before the December meeting, they still expect at least three more 25-basis-point rate hikes by July next year. This "postponed but not canceled" path indicates that the market's reliance on employment data has significantly decreased. Even if the non-farm payroll report gives a dovish signal, it will be difficult to shake the pricing of medium-term tightening. On the contrary, what could truly trigger sharp fluctuations is an extreme downside surprise. Ian Legan, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said, "If we do get some information that the market interprets as early signs of labor market stress, I think we're more likely to see an overreaction than a sell-off based on expected or slightly stronger data." In other words, position unwinding is only likely to amplify a rebound if the data is interpreted as "early stress," while the upward trend in yields is more likely to continue if the data meets expectations or is slightly stronger. Karen Manner, fixed income strategist at Fedheimer, added to this assessment from an investment perspective. She stated that since the Fed's rate hike on September 16, bearish sentiment regarding further significant rate increases has weakened, but there is no complete conviction that yields have peaked; "they could still continue to rise." This cautious stance indicates that even if some "high interest rate" expectations have been realized, the market remains open to further upside potential. In this process, non-farm payroll data plays more of a confirmatory or fine-tuning role than a directional determinant. From a broader perspective, the weakening role of non-farm payroll data reflects profound changes in the monetary policy transmission environment and market pricing mechanisms. In the past, employment data was a key barometer for judging whether the economy was overheating and a core input for the Federal Reserve's decision-making. However, in the current environment, sticky inflation, fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, and structural technological waves have created a more complex driving system. The strength of the labor market has shifted from an "unexpected surprise" to a "baseline scenario," thus reducing the marginal information content of a single report. The market is more focused on whether these long-term forces are sustainable, rather than fluctuations in monthly employment figures. Of course, this does not mean that non-farm payroll data has become completely meaningless. It remains an important window for observing whether early cracks are appearing in the labor market. If the data is unexpectedly weak, coupled with a slowdown in wage growth, it could still trigger short-term position adjustments and a decline in yields. But as Booth said, this threshold has been raised. A normalized slowdown is no longer sufficient to change the trend. On the contrary, as long as employment remains in a range roughly in line with this year's average, the Federal Reserve has reason to continue focusing on its inflation target and maintain a hawkish policy stance. Overall, the upward logic of US Treasury yields has clearly shifted from "data-sensitive" to "structurally driven." The impact of the non-farm payroll report, a traditional core variable, is being diluted by more enduring forces such as oil prices, deficits, the AI boom, and sticky inflation. Within this new framework, investors need to reassess their trading strategies on data release days, reducing over-reliance on a single employment report and focusing more on the evolution of medium- to long-term variables such as fiscal policy, energy, geopolitics, and technology. Only when employment data provides truly extreme downside signals can it regain its role as a catalyst for market sentiment. Until then, the main engine of rising yields will continue to come from forces deeply embedded in the economic structure.