On Monday (October 5th) in early US trading, spot gold was on the stronger side, while spot silver rose sharply. The US September jobs report reduced the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in October, but persistently high US Treasury yields, a strong dollar, and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz crisis limited gold's upside potential. Spot gold traded around $4150.67 per ounce, up 0.25% on the day; spot silver was at $61.421, up 1.74%. The market focus remains on whether the weakness in last Friday's jobs report is enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to pause its new round of tightening. US non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%; average hourly earnings rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year; July and August non-farm payroll data were revised down by a combined 60,000. The current market consensus is that the Fed will hold rates steady in October, with a probability of nearly 82%. However, given that inflation remains above target and oil prices are high, the market still sees a significant possibility of a rate hike in December. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note hovered around 5.26%, and the yield on the 30-year Treasury note approached 5.61%, with the high-interest-rate environment continuing to suppress gold's performance. The market will focus on the following key data and events: 9:45 AM ET, S&P Global Services PMI; 10:00 AM ET, ISM Services Index; 2:00 PM Wednesday, Fed September FOMC meeting minutes; 8:30 AM Thursday, initial jobless claims; 10:00 AM Friday, October Consumer Confidence Index. Weak service sector employment data and declining consumer confidence will support a rise in gold prices after the non-farm payroll data release; however, strong price payments data and resilient service sector demand will continue to put downward pressure on precious metals due to US Treasury yields and the US dollar. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the US-Iran conflict remain unresolved, but the recovery of Middle Eastern exports, coupled with the coordinated release of strategic oil reserves by multiple countries, has alleviated some short-term pressure on the crude oil market. Oil prices declined in early trading on Monday, as the recovery in Middle Eastern crude oil exports, the G7's plan to release emergency oil reserves, and Saudi Arabia's reduction of crude oil prices for Asian buyers all mitigated some supply-side panic. Brent crude remained above $100 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded around $90. Geopolitical risk premiums have not completely subsided: multiple ships have been attacked off the coasts of Oman and Yemen, and analysts predict that the US and Iran will be unlikely to reach a preliminary agreement before early next year. For gold, the situation has a dual impact: lower oil prices can reduce inflationary pressures pushing up yields, but the unresolved shipping and security crises continue to drive safe-haven buying for gold. Before the US stock market opened, global market risk sentiment was weak. US stock index futures fell, with Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures down 0.2% and Nasdaq futures down 0.3%. The stock market rebound driven by last Friday's non-farm payroll data has faded, and high bond yields have become the core factor suppressing various asset classes. European stock markets were mixed, while most major Asian markets closed higher; the Shanghai and South Korean markets were closed for holidays. Although market expectations for a Fed rate hike have become somewhat dovish, the dollar remains resilient, limiting the upside potential for gold. Gold Technical Analysis (Spot Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678) The next upside target for spot gold bulls is to push the price above the $4160-$4190/oz resistance zone; a successful break above this zone would target $4214, then $4238. The short-term downside target for bears is to push the price below $4112; further downside targets are $4073, then $4030. First resistance level: $4160, then $4190; first support level: $4112, then $4073. Silver Technical Analysis The next upside target for spot silver bulls is to push the price above the $61.720-$63.060 range; a break above this range would target $65.090, then $65.447. The downside target for bears is a break below $59.960, with deeper downside targets at $58.940 and $57.640. The first resistance level is $61.720, followed by $63.060; the first support level is $59.960, followed by $58.940.