Gold and silver prices surged in early U.S. trading on Thursday (October 15), rebounding from the previous day's sharp decline. Falling U.S. Treasury yields, a weaker dollar, and renewed safe-haven demand offset the negative impact of stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Technology stocks led the decline in global equities, prompting funds to flow into the Treasury and precious metals markets, even though September's producer price index rose far more than expected. Spot gold traded around $4,153.12 per ounce, up $47, or 1.17%; spot silver was at $56.581, up $0.963, or 1.73%. The market is caught in a complex interplay of bullish and bearish sentiment: on one hand, inflation remains high, while on the other, the market is increasingly concerned about the sustainability of the stock market rally driven by artificial intelligence. September's PPI rose sharply month-on-month, marking the largest monthly increase since March 2022, with energy producer prices surging 10.8% and gasoline prices soaring 20.3%. Prior to this data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 0.6% month-on-month increase and a 3.7% year-on-year increase in September. Retail sales data showed a 0.8% increase in retail sales in September, but excluding automobiles and gasoline, retail sales grew by only 0.2%. Initial jobless claims rose slightly to 199,000, reflecting a slowdown in hiring, but corporate layoffs remained limited. After the data release in early trading, federal funds rate futures pricing indicated a near 29% probability of a Fed rate hike in October. The market's benchmark expectation remains unchanged, but pricing has already largely priced in the possibility of further monetary tightening in December. Driven by a sell-off in highly leveraged AI tech stocks and an influx of funds into US Treasuries, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell to around 5.08%, a three-week low. The US dollar index retreated from its 18-month high reached on Wednesday to around 102.05. Key data to watch on Friday includes import and export prices, industrial production, and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual meetings in Bangkok. The rapid decline in yields directly supported gold prices, but persistently high producer inflation and resilient consumer spending suggest that the Federal Reserve remains inclined towards a tighter policy overall. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the US-Iran conflict remain major sources of geopolitical and energy market risk, although crude oil prices retreated somewhat on Thursday. The US is considering easing sanctions on some oil tankers to reduce shipping costs; Middle Eastern exports have shown signs of recovery, alleviating short-term supply concerns to some extent, but regional security remains volatile. A container ship and a dry bulk carrier near the Strait of Hormuz were sunk after being attacked with ammunition. Iran has stated it will intensify its strikes in response to the US blockade of Iranian ports. Brent crude fell back to around $104.61 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded around $95.90. The decline in oil prices has somewhat eased inflationary pressures, but shipping disruptions, high freight rates, and the unresolved US-Iran conflict continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Silver rebounded along with the precious metals sector, but it is more sensitive to weakening industrial demand and selling pressure from risk assets. Technical Analysis (Spot Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678) The next upside target for spot gold bulls is to push the price above the $4161.46–$4181.44 resistance zone; a continued break above this level would target $4216.96, followed by $4267.20. The short-term downside target for bears is a break below $4127.56, with further downside targets at $4107.28 and then $4088.10. First resistance level: $4161.46; second resistance level: $4181.44; first support level: $4127.56; second support level: $4107.28. (Spot silver daily chart source: FX678) The next upside target for spot silver bulls is to push the price above the $56.340–$56.920 range, with a further target of $57.400 and then $57.860. The downside target for bears is a break below $55.410, with further downside targets at $54.850 and then $54.290. First resistance level: $56.920; second resistance level: $57.400; first support level: $55.410; second support level: $54.850.