The USD/JPY pair traded around 158.0 in Asian trading on Friday, with little change from the previous day's close of 157.98. The exchange rate remains in a delicate balance between support from the USD/JPY interest rate differential and suppression from expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike and the risk of intervention. In the short term, it lacks clear momentum for a unilateral breakout and awaits further policy signals and data catalysts. The US dollar continued to benefit from better-than-expected US inflation data. The US PPI rose 6.3% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month in September, both the highest since 2022; core PPI rose 5.0% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month, also exceeding expectations. Rising energy prices were the main driver, with energy prices surging 10.8% month-on-month in September, indicating that inflationary pressures are spreading from upstream production to a wider range of goods and services. Retail sales, also released on the same day, rose 0.8% month-on-month in September, exceeding expectations and showing that nominal consumption remains resilient. However, the inflation data has not fully translated into a short-term interest rate hike certainty. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated clearly on Friday during the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok that he "would not predict the outcome of the meeting" and did not reveal any possible actions at the October 27-28 monetary policy meeting. Following this statement, the market's expectation of a rate hike in October dropped from over 25% on Thursday to about 15%. Warsh shifted his focus to the economic impact of artificial intelligence, calling it "the most profound economic change of my lifetime," and announced that the Fed's Productivity and Employment Working Group will hold an on-site hearing in the San Francisco Bay Area in November. The yen received support from hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan. Bank of Japan policy board member Junko Koeda stated on Thursday that given the significant upside risks to prices, the central bank should not be overly cautious about raising interest rates, and believes the neutral interest rate is "well above 1%," with room for further increases in the current policy rate of 1.25%. Tokyo's core CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year in September, higher than the expected 2.3%, the highest in 10 months, further strengthening the rationale for a rate hike. However, market surveys indicate that Bank of Japan officials are inclined to hold rates steady in October, with a possible rate hike as early as December. Technically, the USD/JPY pair remains below its 100-day simple moving average, which is around 159.45 and forms a key medium-term resistance level. The price is currently trading above the Bollinger Band middle line, around 157.95, with the lower band around 157.05. The daily RSI is around 53, in neutral territory, indicating weak upward momentum. On the 4-hour chart, the exchange rate is fluctuating around 158.0 to 158.2. Short-term moving averages are flattening, and the MACD histogram is converging, indicating that the momentum has weakened after the continuous rebound. The first resistance is near the upper Bollinger Band at 158.85, the second resistance is at the 100-day moving average at 159.45, and the third resistance is in the 159.80 to 160.00 area, which is also a sensitive area for Japanese intervention. Support levels are at 157.95, 157.05, and 156.70. If the price breaks below 157.05, the short-term bullish structure may be weakened, and the exchange rate may further retrace to the 156.70 to 156.90 area. Editor's Summary: The USD/JPY pair is expected to remain range-bound in the short term. The US dollar is supported by better-than-expected US PPI and year-end rate hike expectations, but Warsh's "no prediction" stance has significantly weakened the premium for an October rate hike. The yen benefits from expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike and the risk of intervention, but the probability of consecutive rate hikes in October is low. Going forward, key attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan meeting at the end of October, subsequent US CPI/PCE data, and developments in the Middle East geopolitical situation.