Spot gold traded around $4,172 per ounce in Asian trading on Monday, a slight increase from Friday's close of $4,165. It briefly rose to $4,187 in early trading before giving back some of its gains, with a daily range of over $30. COMEX gold futures were above $4,190 per ounce, with a divergence between spot and futures prices and intense competition between bulls and bears. Warsh's "no-prediction" remarks at the IMF annual meetings in Bangkok last Friday continue to resonate. The market's probability of keeping interest rates unchanged at the October 27-28 meeting has risen to 83.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike is only 16.1%. However, expectations for a rate hike at the December meeting remain strong—the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 77.3%, a 50 basis point hike is 14.5%, and keeping rates unchanged is only 8.2%. This means the tightening cycle has not ended, but merely its implementation has been postponed. Warsh deliberately maintained a vague communication style, leaving the decision-making power entirely to data, which in the short term reduced the dollar's interest rate premium, and US Treasury yields fell accordingly—the 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 5.06%, and the 2-year yield fell to 4.74%. The decline in real interest rates provides support for gold. The situation in the Middle East remains the core variable for gold pricing. Iran's Revolutionary Guard stated that two supertankers carrying approximately 2 million barrels of crude oil collided and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. Iran's Foreign Minister reiterated the validity of the "seven-day reopening of the strait" proposal, but only if the United States meets its conditions. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that "overthrowing the Iranian regime is crucial" and did not rule out new military action; Trump threatened a possible strike on Iran's underground nuclear facility at Ghoshul. The USS George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier has returned to the Arabian Sea, and the USS George Washington is conducting nighttime operations there. The US and Israel are intensifying discussions on contingency plans for striking Iran. Furthermore, the conflict between the Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia continues. An attack on a residential area in southern Saudi Arabia injured six people, and the Houthis claimed that Saudi airstrikes in northern Yemen killed nine and injured 17. Geopolitical risk premiums provide a solid safe-haven base for gold, which is unlikely to diminish in the short term. SPDR Gold ETF holdings remain at a high level of 1059 tons, indicating continued institutional buying. A recent report from the World Gold Council shows that China's gold jewelry consumption is expected to rise year-on-year in the first half of 2026, with "self-indulgence" demand completely replacing traditional gift-giving as the primary driver. The 18-34 age group is the core pillar, and pure gold products continue to sell well. This structural change in physical demand provides additional support for gold prices. From a daily chart perspective, spot gold is trading below the 100-day simple moving average and is also constrained by the Bollinger Band's middle line, indicating that the medium-term downtrend has not yet fully reversed. The daily RSI is around 45.9, in the neutral-to-weak zone, with a weakening upward slope, indicating insufficient rebound momentum but not yet reaching extreme oversold levels. The MACD histogram is narrowing, and the fast and slow lines are converging, making the directional choice unclear. Resistance levels are at $4187-$4190, $4200, $4215-$4217, and $4240. Support levels are at $4156, $4130, $4100-$4105, and $4073. If the price breaks through $4187 to $4190 and holds above $4200, the short-term bearish structure may ease, and the price could challenge the resistance zone of $4215 to $4217. If it falls below $4156 again, it may further retrace to the $4130 to $4100 area. Editor's Summary: Spot gold is currently supported by both the "delayed Fed rate hike expectations" and the "Middle East geopolitical risk premium," but the daily moving averages are providing significant resistance, and the $4,200 level remains a formidable psychological and technical obstacle. Warsh's "no-prediction" strategy has provided a breathing space for gold, but expectations for a December rate hike remain high, and macroeconomic policy headwinds have not completely dissipated. The key events to watch are the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of October, shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz, the developments of US-Israeli military action against Iran, and subsequent US inflation and employment data. Until the $4,156-$4,217 range is effectively broken, gold is more likely to maintain a wide range of fluctuations, awaiting new policy and geopolitical catalysts.