On Monday (October 19), during the US trading session, unconfirmed reports of a US military strike against Iran triggered a surge in safe-haven buying of crude oil, pushing West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices up rapidly, poised to record their eighth consecutive day of gains. Oil prices rallied from a low slightly above $96.50 to above $99.00, reaching their highest level since September 16. This rally consisted of two short, rapid surges, with the second surge directly pushing prices above the previous Friday's high. The uncertainty surrounding geopolitical conflicts rapidly increased the risk premium for crude oil, with traders worried that military clashes in the Middle East could directly disrupt key global oil shipping routes, causing unexpected disruptions to oil supply. The US government has not confirmed the reports of the strikes, while Iran has stated that it has no choice but to control the Strait of Hormuz, allowing only vessels from friendly nations to pass. US President Trump publicly stated on October 8th that the US would not launch a military strike against Iran before the November 3rd midterm elections, but the market is now speculating on rumors of a US attack on Iran, causing oil prices to rise. The market remains highly sensitive to the Middle East situation; even without verified sources, funds are already trading on geopolitical risk expectations, a significant factor contributing to recent volatility in crude oil prices. The Houthi rebels announced that their forces attacked the Shaba oil field in Saudi Arabia and Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu port, but Saudi Arabia has not yet confirmed the attack. Yanbu port is a crucial hub for Saudi oil pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea. This means that if the attack is true, the two major oil export routes from the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea are simultaneously under potential threat on the same trading day, further amplifying market concerns about oil supply security. Key Economic Calendar The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly inventory report will be released on Wednesday at 22:30 Beijing time; prior to this, the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its industry inventory forecast on Tuesday. The previous EIA report showed that U.S. distillate fuel inventories were 12% below the five-year average, and refinery utilization reached 93.5%. The distillate fuel supply gap is precisely the issue that the Russian diesel-related trade agreement aims to alleviate. The persistently low distillate fuel inventories indicate a continued tight supply of refined products, providing underlying support for crude oil prices. Baker Hughes' oil rig data will be released early Saturday morning Beijing time; previous data showed a decrease of 3 U.S. oil rigs to 459. Technical Analysis (WTI Crude Oil 4-Hour Chart Source: EasyForex) On the 4-hour chart, WTI crude oil has rebounded from a low of 86.86. The Fibonacci retracement of the swing high from 106.72 to 86.86 indicates that the current price is trading near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of 99.13, having touched a high of 99.71 during the session, indicating significant short-term pressure. The medium-term moving averages are in a bullish alignment, with the price holding above the MA20, MA50, MA100, and MA200. The MA20, located at 96.72, coincides with the 0.5 retracement level and serves as the most important short-term support. The lows are consistently rising, maintaining the integrity of the medium-term rebound structure. In terms of indicators, the MACD lines are above the zero line, indicating an unchanged bullish trend, but the red bars are narrowing significantly, suggesting weakening upward momentum and a potential for bearish divergence. The RSI reading is 63.84, within the strong zone but not yet overbought, indicating that bullish momentum remains, but the upward drive is weakening. If the RSI falls below 60, the short-term market will weaken. The short-term market has entered a period of high-level consolidation. For the bulls to continue the rebound, they need to hold above the 99.71 high to open up further upside potential, with the next target at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of 102.47. If the price falls below the key support level of 96.72, this rebound will likely come to a temporary halt, and the market will probably retrace to around 94.45.