Iran denies it is on the verge of collapse, while the US claims the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is facing financial difficulties.
2026-10-21 02:10:20
The admiral stated that the United States has restricted at least $25 billion in Iranian crude oil exports and helped freeze approximately $350 million in cryptocurrency assets. The US believes these measures have made it difficult for the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to pay its personnel in full, and regional armed groups with ties to Iran are also facing funding shortages. Cooper stated, "The financial pressure on the Iranian military is extremely severe. Reports indicate that militias in various parts of the Middle East with close ties to Iran are withholding personnel salaries and diverting funds to support the IRGC, which itself is unable to pay its troops on time." The US views this situation as a development in the US-Iran rivalry; however, Washington has not yet achieved any recognized substantial results in the confrontation. Michael Knights, director of Middle East research at Horizon Consulting, a US geopolitical risk consultancy, stated that Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi movement in Yemen have faced continuous financial pressure in recent years. "Hezbollah and the Houthis have weak economic foundations, so they continue to receive financial and material aid from Iran, primarily in the form of fuel products," said Knights. Funding from Iran's Regional Partners The report states that for decades, the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has consistently supplied its regional partners with funds, weapons, spare parts, training, and weapons manufacturing technology. UN experts and US officials say this allows these regional forces, opposed to the US and Israel, to assemble and produce various weapons domestically. These forces also rely on various commercial activities (including oil exports), private donations, and local resources to operate. Some Iraqi armed factions have been integrated into the Iraqi official security system and receive government funding. The US Treasury Department states that Iraqi business networks with ties to Iran sell Iranian goods and transfer funds through intermediaries and currency exchange channels. Knights believes this makes the financial situation of Iraqi armed groups better than that of their more financially strained partners, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, and reports indicate that funds have also flowed from Iraq to Iran in recent years. He said, "It is true that there have been delays in salary payments for Iraqi militia members and government officials, but at the same time, Iraqi militias are still transferring funds abroad to support Iran, the Houthi movement, and Hezbollah in Lebanon." In September, the US Treasury Department accused a prominent Shiite militia group in Iraq, supported by Tehran, of misappropriating Iraqi resources to fund Iran. Treasury documents also mentioned that the Quds Force had previously made large transfers to Hezbollah, indicating a two-way flow of funds. Earlier this month, anonymous sources reported on Hezbollah's related funding. The US State Department disputed the reports at the time, stating that Hezbollah was "fabricating claims of massive cash injections into Iran in an attempt to save face." Iran: Claims of near collapse are untrue In recent years, Iran's economy has suffered multiple shocks. Its approximately 90 million people face high inflation, low income levels, and a continuously depreciating currency. Meanwhile, Iran faces numerous international restrictions. The World Bank predicted earlier this month that Iran's economy will shrink by 7.7% in the 2026-2027 fiscal year, and conditions for a short-term economic recovery are insufficient. However, Iranian officials emphasized that external pressure would not change their established stance. US Treasury officials had predicted that economic pressure could cause Iran's economy to collapse within months, a prediction Iran refuted. Earlier this month, Central Bank Governor Abdel Nasser Hemmati stated, "Despite immense pressure, the Iranian economy has shown strong resilience. The claim that the Iranian economy is about to collapse is simply a misjudgment." Fiscal Difficulties Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged on Sunday that military attacks and maritime control have brought significant difficulties to the country. However, he stated that the government is relying on domestic resources to cope with external pressure. The president claimed that by regulating domestic consumption, Iran no longer needs to import gasoline; even without US restrictions, this gasoline purchase would have cost $12 billion annually. He pledged a slight increase in electronic food vouchers for citizens, returning fuel-related revenue to ordinary households. Knights believes that regardless of Iran's economic situation, the Iranian authorities are caught in a cycle of escalating confrontation with the United States. “The Trump administration anticipated that economic hardship would force the Iranian regime to compromise, but this prediction has not been proven true in the past.” Negal Motazawi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, predicts that even with tight funds, Tehran will prioritize financial support for its regional partners. She stated, “Economic pressure has indeed squeezed Iran’s military resources, but this will not fundamentally change the strategic judgment of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, nor will it force Tehran to yield.”
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