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Even Brent crude oil prices could not reverse the dollar's decline.

2026-10-20 23:34:20

Despite Brent crude oil approaching a high of $110 per barrel, the US dollar weakened for the fourth consecutive day. The initial positive effect of energy prices on the dollar has clearly diminished, and market focus has shifted to technology company earnings reports and declining US Treasury yields. Compared to distant geopolitical risks in the Middle East, domestic asset pricing logic is dominating short-term currency market trends. Brent crude oil attempted to stabilize and break through the $110/barrel mark, but failed to prevent the dollar's continued decline. 图片点击可在新窗口打开查看 The market's pricing focus has shifted significantly: compared to the complex geopolitical situation, the US dollar is currently reacting more strongly and sensitively to the earnings data of major US companies. Despite Brent crude oil's efforts to hold the key $110/barrel level, the dollar index has fallen for the fourth consecutive trading day. Brent crude last touched this price level in May, when a severe supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz prompted a fragile and short-lived peace agreement between the US and Iran. This time, according to estimates from the US Department of Energy, Middle Eastern crude oil exports are only 80% of pre-war levels. Even so, the high geopolitical risk premium continues to support oil prices, making it difficult for them to fall. The market generally anticipates the potential for further escalation of the Middle East conflict, and this risk premium is continuously priced into crude oil prices, supporting the bottom of Brent crude prices. Kpler data shows that 18 ships have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz in the past two weeks. Coupled with the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the situation in the Middle East remains tense. Iran, facing difficulties, has had to strengthen its control over this crucial global oil shipping route. The Strait of Hormuz handles nearly 30% of global oil shipping; sustained disruptions to its safety would directly impact global energy supply chain expectations. Increased tanker traffic to China, coupled with a significant drop in global crude oil inventories, has curbed the decline in Brent crude prices. At the outset of the Middle East conflict, crude oil inventories acted as a buffer, suppressing the rise in North Sea crude. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has now announced the release of the final 100 million barrels of crude oil from its strategic reserves, part of a 400 million barrel release plan finalized in March. China's growing oil demand has boosted bullish sentiment. Stable oil purchases in the Asian market provide crucial fundamental support for oil prices, offsetting the increased supply pressure from the strategic reserve release. The divergence between Brent crude and the US dollar stems from a shift in market narrative. Historically, rising oil prices often pushed up the dollar, which is both the currency of energy-exporting countries and a safe-haven asset. Currently, however, the dollar index is significantly more sensitive to changes in the US stock market. In past energy bull markets, high oil prices often fueled inflation expectations, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance, indirectly benefiting the US dollar. This old logic has failed in the current market environment. The Nasdaq 100 recorded its worst weekly performance since April 2025, leading to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets and a sharp decline in US Treasury yields. The US dollar lost its core support, especially as market expectations for the Fed to tighten monetary policy in October cooled. However, tech stocks subsequently rebounded, slowing the decline in the dollar index. Therefore, the foreign exchange market is now more focused on corporate earnings reports than news from the Middle East. The earnings expectations of tech giants directly affect US stock valuations and US Treasury yield fluctuations, making yield fluctuations the core driver of recent dollar index movements.
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