Israel's first general election since the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is nearing its end, testing Netanyahu's approach.
2026-10-28 02:08:23
On October 27, local time, Israel's 26th parliamentary election officially began. This is the first national parliamentary election in Israel since the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in October 2023, and it is also seen as an important test of public opinion regarding the governing policies of incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. David Zini, head of the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet), stated on election day that voter participation was high and the voting process was smooth. He said, "The voter turnout is very high, and we can assure the Israeli people that the entire election process was monitored, the procedures were standardized and orderly, and the overall situation is positive." 
According to real-time data from Israel's Central Election Commission, as of local time noon, voter turnout for this general election reached 31.5%, a significant increase compared to the 28.4% turnout at the same time in the 2022 general election. This midday voter turnout figure sets a new record for the highest since the first general election after the Yom Kippur War in 1973. The high voter participation rate has become a key signal for market participants and observers interpreting the election's direction. A total of 7,331,981 voters were registered for this election, with 12,018 polling stations set up nationwide. 36 political parties competed for 120 seats in parliament. Polling windows were open from 7:00 AM to 10:00 PM local time (4:00 AM Beijing time). Public opinion generally associates the high voter turnout with "bibifatigue." Social burnout from long-term rule, the pressure on people's livelihoods from ongoing warfare, and public disagreements on security policies have driven a large number of voters out of their homes. The increased votes have flowed to both the left-wing centrist camp and show signs of leaning towards more radical right-wing parties, putting pressure on Netanyahu's Likud party. The somber geopolitical backdrop behind the election: escalating conflicts on multiple fronts The unique backdrop to this election is the long-standing Middle East conflict. Since Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023, the fighting in the Gaza Strip has continued; border clashes in Lebanon remain unresolved, and regional tensions fluctuate. Netanyahu, 77, has led Israel for nearly 19 years out of the past 30 years, consistently using security issues as a core campaign tool, cultivating a political image as a "wartime prime minister" amidst numerous crises. Since the outbreak of the conflict, his government has spearheaded large-scale military operations in Gaza, while also deploying military forces in Lebanon and Syria, and conducting multiple strikes against targets in Yemen. The confrontation with Iran is currently the biggest risk variable. Iran has already launched multiple retaliatory attacks, including ballistic missile and drone strikes against Israeli cities and military bases. Netanyahu has repeatedly mentioned the Iranian threat publicly, not ruling out the option of resuming military action against Iran. The opposition criticizes the government for deliberately exaggerating external threats and using the conflict to prolong its rule. The ongoing multi-front war has also taken a toll on Israel's domestic economy and people's livelihoods. The overlapping problems of inflation, manpower shortages, and social divisions have created fertile ground for "bibi fatigue." The election is neck-and-neck: a battle between two major camps, with neither side securing a majority of seats. Pre-election polls pointed to the same conclusion: the election was extremely close. On one side was the ruling coalition led by Netanyahu, composed of the Likud party, ultra-orthodox parties, and right-wing parties; on the other side was the opposition camp led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Esenkot. The Israeli parliament has 120 seats, and a government needs at least 61 seats to form a majority. Current polls suggest that neither camp can easily cross this threshold alone. The subsequent coalition negotiations will be crucial in determining the direction of the new government. While the opposition camp holds a slight advantage in some polls, significant internal divisions exist, with the core issue being whether to cooperate with Arab parties. This disagreement could prevent their paper advantage from translating into a stable ruling coalition. On election day, Netanyahu, accompanied by his wife Sara, cast his vote at a polling station in Jerusalem, urging voters in Hebrew, "Go vote!" Simultaneously, he released a video message to supporters, mentioning the arrest of three Ra'am party staff members on suspicion of bribery, stating, "They are trying to steal this election." This statement, made by the Ra'am party, an Arab Muslim religious party, highlights the rising controversy surrounding this election. Electoral System Characteristics: Proportional Representation, Government Formation Deadlock is Common Many overseas market participants easily overlook Israel's unique electoral rules: Israel does not directly elect its prime minister; voters select a list of political parties through ballot, using a national single-member constituency proportional representation system, without geographically divided constituencies. Voters in different regions such as Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Haifa vote for the same list of participating parties, not local parliamentary candidates. Participating parties must reach a certain vote threshold to enter parliament. Party fragmentation and the strong bargaining power of smaller parties are long-standing characteristics of Israeli politics. Historically, no single party has ever formed a majority in Israel; each government has relied on compromises to form a coalition government. This system means that the end of an election does not equate to a final result. If negotiations between party leaders break down and no agreement can be reached to form a government, parliament will be dissolved, and new elections will be held. Israel has previously experienced situations where multiple rounds of elections were held after the collapse of the government; a protracted government-forming stalemate lasting for months is a tail risk that the market needs to be aware of. Key points to observe: How will the election results affect Middle Eastern and global assets? From a financial and macroeconomic perspective, the core impact of this election lies not in the outcome of a single day, but in three main themes: First, if Netanyahu's camp continues to govern, a hardline stance in the Middle East is likely to continue, keeping the risk of escalating geopolitical conflicts in Iran, the Red Sea, and Lebanon high, pushing up oil prices and volatility in safe-haven assets; Second, if the opposition successfully forms a government, it is expected to shift towards a more pragmatic negotiating stance on security policy, but the complexity of factions within the opposition makes the extent of this policy shift uncertain; Third, if another government-forming deadlock occurs, Israel will enter a long-term political vacuum. Under a caretaker government, policy stability will decrease, and the disruptions from regional events will be more difficult to predict. The trajectory of the Middle East situation continues to have spillover effects on global energy supply, shipping routes, and regional trade, making it an important variable that global investors need to keep a close eye on.
According to real-time data from Israel's Central Election Commission, as of local time noon, voter turnout for this general election reached 31.5%, a significant increase compared to the 28.4% turnout at the same time in the 2022 general election. This midday voter turnout figure sets a new record for the highest since the first general election after the Yom Kippur War in 1973. The high voter participation rate has become a key signal for market participants and observers interpreting the election's direction. A total of 7,331,981 voters were registered for this election, with 12,018 polling stations set up nationwide. 36 political parties competed for 120 seats in parliament. Polling windows were open from 7:00 AM to 10:00 PM local time (4:00 AM Beijing time). Public opinion generally associates the high voter turnout with "bibifatigue." Social burnout from long-term rule, the pressure on people's livelihoods from ongoing warfare, and public disagreements on security policies have driven a large number of voters out of their homes. The increased votes have flowed to both the left-wing centrist camp and show signs of leaning towards more radical right-wing parties, putting pressure on Netanyahu's Likud party. The somber geopolitical backdrop behind the election: escalating conflicts on multiple fronts The unique backdrop to this election is the long-standing Middle East conflict. Since Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023, the fighting in the Gaza Strip has continued; border clashes in Lebanon remain unresolved, and regional tensions fluctuate. Netanyahu, 77, has led Israel for nearly 19 years out of the past 30 years, consistently using security issues as a core campaign tool, cultivating a political image as a "wartime prime minister" amidst numerous crises. Since the outbreak of the conflict, his government has spearheaded large-scale military operations in Gaza, while also deploying military forces in Lebanon and Syria, and conducting multiple strikes against targets in Yemen. The confrontation with Iran is currently the biggest risk variable. Iran has already launched multiple retaliatory attacks, including ballistic missile and drone strikes against Israeli cities and military bases. Netanyahu has repeatedly mentioned the Iranian threat publicly, not ruling out the option of resuming military action against Iran. The opposition criticizes the government for deliberately exaggerating external threats and using the conflict to prolong its rule. The ongoing multi-front war has also taken a toll on Israel's domestic economy and people's livelihoods. The overlapping problems of inflation, manpower shortages, and social divisions have created fertile ground for "bibi fatigue." The election is neck-and-neck: a battle between two major camps, with neither side securing a majority of seats. Pre-election polls pointed to the same conclusion: the election was extremely close. On one side was the ruling coalition led by Netanyahu, composed of the Likud party, ultra-orthodox parties, and right-wing parties; on the other side was the opposition camp led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Esenkot. The Israeli parliament has 120 seats, and a government needs at least 61 seats to form a majority. Current polls suggest that neither camp can easily cross this threshold alone. The subsequent coalition negotiations will be crucial in determining the direction of the new government. While the opposition camp holds a slight advantage in some polls, significant internal divisions exist, with the core issue being whether to cooperate with Arab parties. This disagreement could prevent their paper advantage from translating into a stable ruling coalition. On election day, Netanyahu, accompanied by his wife Sara, cast his vote at a polling station in Jerusalem, urging voters in Hebrew, "Go vote!" Simultaneously, he released a video message to supporters, mentioning the arrest of three Ra'am party staff members on suspicion of bribery, stating, "They are trying to steal this election." This statement, made by the Ra'am party, an Arab Muslim religious party, highlights the rising controversy surrounding this election. Electoral System Characteristics: Proportional Representation, Government Formation Deadlock is Common Many overseas market participants easily overlook Israel's unique electoral rules: Israel does not directly elect its prime minister; voters select a list of political parties through ballot, using a national single-member constituency proportional representation system, without geographically divided constituencies. Voters in different regions such as Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Haifa vote for the same list of participating parties, not local parliamentary candidates. Participating parties must reach a certain vote threshold to enter parliament. Party fragmentation and the strong bargaining power of smaller parties are long-standing characteristics of Israeli politics. Historically, no single party has ever formed a majority in Israel; each government has relied on compromises to form a coalition government. This system means that the end of an election does not equate to a final result. If negotiations between party leaders break down and no agreement can be reached to form a government, parliament will be dissolved, and new elections will be held. Israel has previously experienced situations where multiple rounds of elections were held after the collapse of the government; a protracted government-forming stalemate lasting for months is a tail risk that the market needs to be aware of. Key points to observe: How will the election results affect Middle Eastern and global assets? From a financial and macroeconomic perspective, the core impact of this election lies not in the outcome of a single day, but in three main themes: First, if Netanyahu's camp continues to govern, a hardline stance in the Middle East is likely to continue, keeping the risk of escalating geopolitical conflicts in Iran, the Red Sea, and Lebanon high, pushing up oil prices and volatility in safe-haven assets; Second, if the opposition successfully forms a government, it is expected to shift towards a more pragmatic negotiating stance on security policy, but the complexity of factions within the opposition makes the extent of this policy shift uncertain; Third, if another government-forming deadlock occurs, Israel will enter a long-term political vacuum. Under a caretaker government, policy stability will decrease, and the disruptions from regional events will be more difficult to predict. The trajectory of the Middle East situation continues to have spillover effects on global energy supply, shipping routes, and regional trade, making it an important variable that global investors need to keep a close eye on.
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