Tensions in the Middle East have remained high recently, with the conflict between the United States and Iran lasting for months. This has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, driven up energy prices, and impacted neighboring countries. Just as US President Trump publicly hinted at a possible renewed and intense attack on Iran after the midterm elections, Vice President JD Vance quietly opened a private channel of communication, attempting to secure a final window of opportunity for peace negotiations. This move not only exposes the subtle divisions within the White House regarding war and diplomacy but also reflects the changing power structure in Tehran and the arduous efforts of mediation from various parties.

Vance's secret letter probes hardliners; a diplomatic window opens within the White House.

According to U.S. officials and sources, Vice President Vance has sent a formal letter to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Rezaei, a long-time commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is one of Iran's most powerful hardliners, whose influence in Tehran has risen significantly since the early U.S. and Israeli assassinations of high-ranking Iranian officials. Sources indicate that the letter was sent at Trump's direction, and its core purpose was not to immediately propose concrete peace terms, but rather to explore whether both sides could find enough common ground to persuade the president to postpone a short but intense military operation in the coming weeks. Trump himself confirmed the contact request to reporters Wednesday evening (October 28). He stated that Vance had consulted him, and his response was, "If you want to do it, that's fine," adding that Iran needed medical supplies and other forms of assistance. This statement contrasts sharply with Trump's previous hardline rhetoric. Just last week, he publicly declared that his administration had not negotiated with the Iranians and hinted at an impending strike, saying, "We haven't negotiated with them. We're going to do it anyway, and it'll happen very soon." Vance himself publicly supports military action against Iran, but privately holds reservations about a protracted conflict. Even before Trump launched Operation Epic Fury in February, Vance advocated prioritizing a stronger diplomatic effort. Trump later appointed him chief negotiator, and Vance twice traveled abroad to meet with his Iranian counterparts in an attempt to push for a final agreement. A memorandum of understanding reached in June collapsed just two weeks later due to disagreements over the interpretation of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, further highlighting the fragility of mutual trust.

The interplay between the rise of hardliners and multi-party mediation

Some U.S. officials believe that direct dialogue with Iranian hardliners may yield better results than communication through traditional diplomatic channels. Since the outbreak of the conflict, the power of hardliners in Tehran has risen significantly, with Rezaei being a key figure. Earlier this month, he publicly warned that Tehran might target the previously largely untouched UAE, and even regional data centers and internet cables. On Sunday, Rezaei made a rare meeting in Tehran with senior security officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, all seeking de-escalation; such visits are usually led by diplomats. Meanwhile, Qatar-led mediation is also progressing. An official familiar with the negotiations revealed that Qatari mediators have presented Iran with a new draft agreement aimed at ending the eight-month-long war. The draft sets a seven-day timetable for addressing concerns from both sides and arranging daily confidence-building measures, potentially with multiple countries acting as guarantors, with arrangements expected to begin early next week. However, senior Iranian officials involved in the negotiations have called it an "unacceptable concept" and an informal proposal. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi emphasized that Tehran is still in contact with mediators from all sides and hopes to implement its proposed seven-day solution. He stated that while its armed forces are fully prepared, Iran is still willing to give diplomacy a chance to succeed. The United States insists that Iran make concessions on the nuclear issue first, while Tehran demands immediate economic relief. The United States continues its economic blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, and although oil exports are still flowing, the scale is insufficient to alleviate global energy price pressures. Trump has made dismantling Iran's nuclear program a national security priority for his second term, sometimes seeking diplomacy and sometimes using military pressure to force compliance. Recently, during his campaign, he repeatedly stated that he expects to resume war with Iran, and that the conflict will only end when he decides to. He told reporters on Tuesday night, "They've always wanted to reach an agreement, but they just love to drag it out. Maybe they're waiting for the election or something, but that won't help them."

Domestic political pressure and regional chain reactions

Vance's contact comes at a crucial moment for the Republican Party as it prepares for a potential loss of seats in the midterm elections. Voters widely see the conflict with Iran and the resulting increase in fuel costs as a major reason for their dissatisfaction with Trump and his Republican colleagues. Ahead of the 2028 presidential election, Vance is already considered an early frontrunner for the Republican nomination, and his private diplomatic efforts also reflect a desire to maintain a polished political image. Meanwhile, regional tensions are escalating. The Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked Aden International Airport on Wednesday, after an evacuation warning had been issued. Aden is the seat of the internationally recognized, Saudi-backed Yemeni government. The attack caused civilian injuries and property damage, and flights were subsequently suspended. A Houthi spokesman claimed the warning was issued because a Saudi military transport plane carrying weapons was in the area. This incident further highlights the risk of the conflict spreading to neighboring regions and places new pressures on global shipping and humanitarian corridors.

Summarize

Overall, Vance's private contact with Rezaei was an effort to leave room for diplomacy against the backdrop of Trump's public threats of military escalation. It reflects both the White House's internal weighing of the costs and political consequences of war and the changing communication channels following the rise of Iranian hardliners. Whether the proposed mediation draft by Qatar and other third parties will be accepted by both sides remains uncertain. With the midterm elections approaching, high energy prices, and the spillover effects of regional conflict, the US and Iran will face a crucial test in the coming weeks: will they head towards a brief and intense military showdown, or will they find a limited framework for negotiations? Regardless of the outcome, this game has far exceeded the bilateral scope, impacting the global energy market, shipping security, and the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why did Vance choose to contact Rezaei instead of traditional Iranian diplomatic officials? A: Rezaei is the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and a long-time leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Following the early killings of high-ranking Iranian officials by the US and Israel, the power of hardliners in Tehran has significantly increased. US officials believe that direct dialogue with these powerful figures may be more effective than through marginalized traditional diplomatic channels. Rezaei recently warned of potential attacks on the UAE and regional infrastructure and held rare meetings with senior security officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, demonstrating his crucial role in balancing de-escalation and hardline stances. Q: What is Trump's true intention in allowing contact while threatening war? A: Trump has prioritized dismantling Iran's nuclear program and strategically alternates between diplomatic and military pressure. Last week, he emphasized that there were no negotiations with Iran and hinted at impending action, but this week he agreed to Vance's probing. Sources say Vance's letter was sent at his direction to buy time and common ground, avoiding or postponing a potentially short but intense attack after the election. Meanwhile, midterm election pressure, rising fuel costs, and the risk of losing Republican seats have also prompted the White House to retain diplomatic options. Q: How does Qatar's new draft proposal differ from Iran's own proposal? Why is it being questioned? A: Qatar's draft proposal sets a seven-day timetable to address concerns from both sides and arranges daily confidence-building measures, possibly guaranteed by multiple countries. Its content differs from Iran's seven-day proposal put forward at the end of September. Iranian officials called it an "unacceptable concept" and emphasized that their position on the nuclear issue remains unchanged. Iran's foreign minister stated that they are still studying the proposals from all parties and hope to push forward their own proposal. Previously, negotiations mediated by Qatar and Pakistan stalled because the US demanded nuclear concessions first, and Iran demanded economic relief first. Q: Why did the June memorandum of understanding break down so quickly? What impact will it have on current negotiations? A: The memorandum expired two weeks after its signing due to conflicting interpretations of the Strait of Hormuz's navigation regulations. The US maintained its economic blockade of Iranian ports, and while oil exports were not completely cut off, their scale was limited and unable to alleviate energy prices. This failure deepened the lack of mutual trust, causing the current Vance contacts to focus on the negotiation framework rather than specific terms. Both sides are more cautious, increasing the difficulty of third-party mediation. Q: What is the connection between the Houthi attack on Aden airport and the US-Iran conflict? A: The Houthi attack, launched by a force supported by Iran, occurred against the backdrop of the conflict spreading to Saudi Arabia and Yemen. An evacuation warning was issued prior to the attack, citing the presence of Saudi military transport planes. The incident resulted in civilian injuries and flight suspensions, further disrupting regional shipping and humanitarian corridors, indicating a rising risk of spillover from the conflict and increasing the cascading costs should the US and Iran engage in a direct confrontation. Q: What impact will this have on international oil prices? A: The current US-Iran conflict has lasted for months, hindering shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian oil exports. Coupled with spillover events such as the Houthi attack on Aden airport, geopolitical risk premiums continue to rise. Trump has publicly threatened to resume a major offensive after the midterm elections. If the conflict escalates, the risk of a Strait of Hormuz blockade will increase sharply, posing a further threat of disruption to global oil supplies, making it more likely that international oil prices will rise than fall. Even if Vance privately contacts and explores diplomatic avenues, the lack of mutual trust and the difficulty in breaking the nuclear deadlock in the short term mean the market still favors a scenario of escalation. If the situation ultimately de-escalates to a limited extent, the pressure on high oil prices may ease somewhat, but given the high uncertainty before the election, oil prices will still be supported overall. At 09:53 Beijing time, the Brent crude oil January futures price was $110.61 per barrel.