The release of October PCE inflation and Q3 GDP data did not result in significant price movements for the US dollar or gold. The core reason is that all inflation figures met market expectations, offering neither unexpected surprises nor shocks. Although Q3 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4%, higher than the expected 3.2%, indicating a more resilient economy, this possibility of a strong economy had already been priced in by the market. With the data now released, the lack of new information to alter market sentiment regarding the Fed's interest rates has dampened the incentive for large-scale trading. October PCE inflation and Q3 GDP data were released, but neither the US dollar nor gold showed any significant price movement. (US Dollar Index 1-minute chart, source: FX678) (Spot gold 1-minute chart, source: EasyTrade) Data overview: Overall PCE rose 3.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month; core PCE rose 3.1% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month, all in line with market expectations. Inflation rose slightly along the previously predicted path, and the Fed's baseline scenario of "keeping the possibility of rate hikes open and following the data" remained unchanged. Looking at inflation separately, the rise in overall PCE indicates that inflationary pressure from energy continues, and external factors such as oil prices are still pushing up prices. However, because the results are completely in line with expectations, the market will not raise its inflation expectations based on this data. At the same time, the simultaneous rise in core inflation also indicates that high interest rates have increased the cost of borrowing for consumption (tightening of household financial conditions), but the effect on curbing prices is limited, and price stickiness is strong, with a considerable gap remaining from the Fed's 2% inflation target. The simultaneously released Q3 GDP reached 3.4%, and the economic resilience once again exceeded expectations. Many institutions have mentioned the siphon effect brought by AI: the current high growth of the US economy is largely supported by investment in AI computing power and data centers. Capital and talent are flocking to the AI sector, leaving traditional industries and SMEs with relatively few resources. This is a one-sided boom, not a recovery across all sectors. If the AI investment fervor cools down and no other industry takes over, economic growth could easily decline. From an interest rate perspective: given a strong economy and expected inflation, the Federal Reserve will remain cautious and unlikely to easily abandon the option of raising interest rates.

Opinions from multiple institutions:

Goldman Sachs (Neutral to Hawkish): Inflation met expectations, price stickiness was confirmed, the Fed remains on the sidelines, and a December rate hike is still possible; a rate cut is unlikely soon. Domestic Institutions (Gold Perspective, Neutral): Data showed no unexpected changes, gold prices lack new upward or downward momentum, and are likely to maintain a wide range of fluctuations; energy inflation is a long-term issue and a key variable for gold prices, while the liquidity selling pressure from a sharp drop in US stocks needs to be watched closely. In short: This is a set of data showing a slight increase in inflation as expected and a stronger-than-expected economy. Because there were no unexpected changes, the dollar and gold lack a clear direction in the short term, and fluctuations are the main theme. However, this does not mean that risks have disappeared; inflationary pressures on the energy side remain, the price stickiness problem has not been resolved, and the US economy is highly dependent on AI.

Going forward, we will focus on three key things:

Will inflation in core services begin to decline? What about oil prices and the situation in the Middle East? Can AI-related investments continue?