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2026-11-02 12:08:26
[Deutsche Bank Bets Against RBA Holding Rates Steady] 1. In a survey, Deutsche Bank economists were the only ones among 32 respondents to predict the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would keep interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, while the other 31 expected a 25 basis point hike to 4.85%. 2. Deutsche Bank believes current inflation levels are in line with the RBA's previous forecasts; waiting for clarity after the US midterm elections, particularly regarding oil price trends, is also a reasonable consideration. 3. The market has almost fully priced in a rate hike, so the market impact of the two decisions is clearly asymmetrical: if the RBA keeps rates unchanged, the Australian dollar may weaken, and short-term government bonds may rise; if rates are raised, it essentially confirms that the market already has these expectations. 4. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's unexpected decision to keep rates unchanged last week indicates that the central bank may still go against the near-unanimous market bets, which may make traders more cautious before the RBA's decision.
