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2026-11-02 15:12:24

[Oil Prices Fall Over 3% as Expectations for Iranian Peace Talks Rise] 1. On Monday, renewed diplomatic efforts by the US and Iran to end the conflict eased market concerns about Middle Eastern oil supplies, causing oil prices to fall by more than 3%, erasing some of last week's gains. Brent crude futures for January delivery fell as much as 3.5% to $109.41 per barrel; WTI crude futures for December delivery fell as much as 3.8% to $100.15 per barrel. 2. According to Iran's parliamentary news agency ICANA, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said on Sunday that consultations between Iran and Qatari mediators on reopening the Strait of Hormuz are continuing, but no agreement has been reached. He said an Iranian delegation led by the deputy foreign minister has traveled to Qatar for talks, but no direct meetings with US officials are planned. 3. Nevertheless, the possibility of renewed conflict between Washington and Tehran continues to worry the market. Earlier reports indicated that the US had informed several Gulf Arab states to prepare for a possible short-term, high-intensity military action against Iran after Tuesday's midterm elections; Trump has not yet made a final decision on another strike. Before the price drop, Brent crude had risen to a six-month high in October. 4. Regarding supply policy, seven OPEC+ oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed on Sunday to maintain their December production targets unchanged, at September levels; the organization plans to meet again on November 29 to review January production levels. After months of shipping disruptions, oil producers continue to shift export routes away from the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data shows that loading volumes at the UAE's Fujairah port and terminals outside the Strait of Oman are 36% higher than pre-war levels, and Red Sea loading volumes are 8% higher. 5. According to the Wall Street Journal, OPEC data shows that despite increased production in September, its daily oil output is still more than 3 million barrels lower than pre-war levels, highlighting regional supply constraints. Regional security risks persisted over the weekend: the Saudi-led coalition said it had launched military operations against resources used by the Houthi rebels in Yemen to support their missile and drone projects; Saudi air defenses also intercepted and destroyed a Houthi ballistic missile launched towards southern Saudi Arabia.

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