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[Strong El Niño Strikes, US Power Grid Faces New Challenges] ⑴ A very strong El Niño phenomenon is intensifying in the tropical Pacific and is expected to last until the spring of 2027, potentially causing significant changes in US power supply and demand this winter and posing new challenges to utilities. ⑵ The current installed capacity of solar, wind, and battery storage on the US power grid is far higher than during the last strong El Niño. This event may test whether this change in energy structure has enhanced grid resilience or introduced new vulnerabilities. ⑶ According to the latest outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this winter, California, the Southwest, and most of the southern United States will experience above-average rainfall, while parts of the Rocky Mountains and the Great Lakes will be drier, and most of the northern United States will be warmer than usual. ⑷ The impact of El Niño on various power resources is not uniform. A study in March found that the previous super El Niño was associated with a nearly 5% reduction in potential solar power generation in parts of California over 12 months, with Northern California experiencing a winter reduction of more than 10%. (5) Vincent Tidwell, chief scientist at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, stated that a wetter winter in California could boost hydropower, while reduced precipitation or snow cover in the Pacific Northwest could reduce local power generation. Erik Smith, a climate scientist at the Electric Power Research Institute, noted that the Southeast is also likely to see reduced solar power due to more cloudy skies. (6) California currently has over 21 gigawatts of battery capacity, providing another tool for the grid to cope with power supply fluctuations, a capability the state had almost none during the last super El Niño. (7) According to Pacific Northwest National Laboratory analysis, the Columbia and Snake River basins accounted for approximately 62% of hydropower generation in the western United States between 2001 and 2020. Tidwell stated that the western grid is accustomed to inter-regional power allocation to compensate for shortages when hydropower conditions differ. (8) Tidwell predicts that if El Niño reduces hydropower in the Pacific Northwest and solar power in California this winter, natural gas will play a greater backup role, and resources such as wind, geothermal, and nuclear power will also provide additional options, but the impact of El Niño on wind power remains poorly understood. (9) Smith stated that a very strong El Niño could actually alleviate some pressure on the power system, as warmer-than-usual temperatures in the northern United States could reduce winter heating demand, thus partially offsetting the pressure from changes in power supply in other regions. (10) However, even a very strong El Niño does not guarantee specific weather impacts. Severe cold waves could still put pressure on the power grid during a warmer-than-usual winter, and several major storms could significantly alter regional precipitation and snow cover. Smith expressed high confidence in the average trend, but less confidence in the specific daily and weekly weather events that could drive these averages.