Boosted by renewed expectations of peace talks from Iran, the gold market is currently experiencing continued volatility. The core logic behind this rebound stems from the rapid decline in geopolitical risk premiums: the market is beginning to price in a de-escalation of the Middle East conflict, reduced risks of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a simultaneous weakening of crude oil prices, and easing short-term inflation concerns, all contributing to a recovery in gold prices. However, the $4,000 level remains a strong psychological barrier, with a large number of short-term profit-taking orders and selling pressure from previously trapped positions converging at this level. The battle between bulls and bears is expected to intensify rapidly, and it will be difficult to establish a firm foothold solely based on a single geopolitical news event. Gold prices surged today, rapidly approaching $4,000. This $4,000 level is expected to present some resistance, as it previously acted as support and saw many investors establish long positions. Now that gold has broken through this level strongly, it's likely that it will soon become resistance, following market memory patterns. Many long positions entered at this price level will likely exit at breakeven once the price returns to this area, creating natural selling pressure. Simultaneously, short-term speculative funds tend to bet on pullbacks at round numbers, further amplifying the downward pressure. In addition, several important data releases this week will significantly impact the US dollar and US Treasury yields, thus influencing gold price direction: Tomorrow will see the Job Openings and Labor Force Mobility Survey (JOLTS) data, used to observe the tightness of US job demand and determine if the labor market continues to cool; Wednesday will see the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the service sector having a significant weight in the US economy, and its strength directly reflecting the resilience of domestic demand; Friday will see the non-farm payroll report, one of the most important indicators for the Federal Reserve's policy path. This week's dense US data releases could potentially cause significant fluctuations in gold prices. We need to closely monitor the reaction of US Treasury yields to these data releases—gold itself does not generate interest, and rising real yields on US Treasury bonds will continue to weaken the attractiveness of holding gold, which is also the most crucial fundamental variable suppressing gold prices in the medium term. (Spot gold daily chart source: FX678) The market is currently in a very typical window of expectation-driven speculation: if employment data is strong, the market will lower its expectations for interest rate cuts and push up US Treasury yields, and the gold price rebound is likely to be short-lived; conversely, if employment data is significantly weak, expectations for interest rate cuts will rise, the dollar will weaken, and only then might gold prices break through the $4,000 resistance level. At the same time, there is a supporting force in the long-term fundamentals: continued gold purchases by central banks around the world and the slow return of funds to gold ETFs provide long-term support for gold prices. However, these allocation funds are relatively slow-moving and unlikely to dominate short-term price movements. Waiting for the upward momentum to weaken before shorting. I will look for signs of weakening upward momentum in the short term and look for opportunities to short. These signs of weakening typically include a long upper shadow after a surge and pullback, shrinking trading volume, a slowing upward slope, and prices failing to reach new highs after positive news has been priced in. Although geopolitical news provides emotional support, I believe it is only a matter of time before traders sell off gold again. However, if gold prices stabilize above $4100, accompanied by a continued decline in US Treasury yields and a significant weakening of the US dollar, the upward trend may continue, opening up further upside potential. However, I don't have high expectations for this. Once I detect signs of exhaustion in the upward trend, I will open a short position in the short term, with a target of $3600 for this downside. Further movement remains to be seen. This target range also coincides with a previous area of dense trading support. If gold prices fall back to this level, long-term buying will likely re-enter the market. In the long run, the gold market will eventually return to a bullish pattern. The global high debt environment, the normalization of geopolitical conflicts, and central banks' continued diversification of reserve risks are all underlying factors supporting a long-term bull market for gold, although this trend is not currently visible. The current wave is more of a news-driven rebound and correction than a trend reversal. Signals of weakening upward momentum will present good opportunities to short.