Frank Giustra, founder of Goldcorp, was labeled as unrealistic when he first entered the gold market in 2001. Now, he believes central banks have bottomed out gold prices, large mining companies will acquire smaller ones, and quantitative easing will return. He sets three hard conditions for selling gold: world peace, honest politicians, and benevolent bankers, which he considers nearly impossible to achieve.

Multiple risks lurk, and monetary easing will be restarted when a crisis occurs.

Justella, with over 45 years of industry experience and a long-time director of the International Crisis Group, was interviewed at an investment conference in New Orleans on October 29th. His memoir, *The Money Dilemma: My Unexpected Path to Wealth, Philanthropy, and Peace*, was officially published on November 3rd (November 4th Beijing time). He stated, "Many black swan events lurk in the shadows, and once the risks erupt, policymakers will again choose to loosen monetary policy. I'm certain we will see large-scale quantitative easing again in our lifetime." In his view, the situation regarding Iran is the most prominent risk in the near term. On the day of the interview, Brent crude oil prices broke through $110 per barrel, with the market generally pricing in a peace expectation, which he disagrees with. He believes there is a possibility of a strike after the US midterm elections, and an escalation of the conflict would push up oil prices and even drag the global economy into a deep recession. However, he also revealed that diplomatic communication is still underway behind the scenes, with the possibility of reaching an agreement, but it is uncertain whether a conflict will break out first.

The continued depreciation of the US dollar and central bank gold purchases have provided strong support for gold prices.

Justella's long-term bullish view on gold is rooted in the enormous fiscal costs of war. He points out that the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq cost approximately $8 trillion, and such long-term, massive expenditures will gradually deplete national finances, ultimately only able to maintain operations by diluting the value of the dollar. A depreciating dollar naturally leads to higher gold prices—an objective mathematical law, not subjective conjecture. Central banks worldwide continue to de-dollarize and increase their gold reserves, providing support for gold prices. Data released by the World Gold Council on November 3rd (US time) shows that central banks made net purchases of 321 tons of gold in the third quarter, the fastest pace of purchases since 2024. He advises physical gold holders to hold their gold long-term, emphasizing that gold's core value lies in passing on family wealth. Looking back to 2001, when gold prices were below $300 per ounce, his recommendations to institutions were met with ridicule and deemed unrealistic. While there is optimism in the current market, there is no widespread frenzy; the general public has not yet entered the market in large numbers, and we have not yet entered a traditional gold bull market.

The mining landscape is undergoing changes, and the copper resource gap presents opportunities.

Mining companies are currently facing rising costs, with many gold mines experiencing significant increases in fuel and overall maintenance costs. Justella, who owns shares in leading mining companies, believes there is limited downside for gold prices and remains optimistic about his holdings. He also mentioned that large gold mining companies have ample cash reserves, but mineral reserves are continuously being depleted. To replenish resources, they will eventually acquire smaller mining targets, but are currently in a wait-and-see phase. Compared to gold, he is more optimistic about the copper sector, predicting a significant copper supply gap. For many years, large mining companies have focused on upgrading old mines, rarely building new projects, resulting in weak supply growth. He is focusing on the Colombian market, where the local government is actively attracting foreign investment in the mining and oil and gas sectors, and related cooperation frameworks and mining contracts are being finalized, making the investment prospects promising.

Conclusion

Having weathered decades of market ups and downs, Frank Justella has consistently adhered to the logic of gold allocation. In his view, long-term variables such as geopolitical risks, fiscal deficits, and weakening dollar credibility will not disappear. Coupled with the supportive force of central bank gold purchases, gold's value preservation attribute remains irreplaceable in volatile environments. Spot gold weekly chart source: FX678. At 11:00 AM Beijing time on November 4th, spot gold was trading at $3934.44 per ounce.