The US midterm elections are gradually releasing results, which will determine all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and 36 gubernatorial seats. The precious metals trading market is closely monitoring the results. The market generally anticipates that the Democrats will regain control of the House, while the Senate control remains uncertain. The election results will indirectly influence gold and silver pricing through US Treasury yields and the dollar's performance.

The Transmission Logic Between Election Expectations and Precious Metals

Multiple prediction platforms indicate that Kalshi and other forecasting markets believe the Democrats have a 90% chance of winning the House of Representatives, while the Senate race is close. Inflation, tariffs, and the situation regarding Iran are the issues voters care about most. If the Democrats control the House, it will limit President Trump's policy implementation space, and tax and fiscal spending bills are likely to get stuck in a policy deadlock. Analysts say that the market is more concerned about the impact of the election results on US Treasury yields and the US dollar index than the election results themselves, as these are the core indicators of precious metal prices . From a technical perspective, silver is weaker, having already fallen below its 2026 low, with oversold signals accumulating; gold, on the other hand, is relatively resilient, holding its key support level. Looking back at history has only limited reference value. Data from the World Gold Council since 1970 shows that the probability of gold prices rising within six months after a midterm election is 62%, with a median increase of only 2%. Researchers believe that past patterns cannot be directly applied to the 2026 market.

Democratic Party Takes Full Control of Congress: Multiple Reasons for a Positive Outlook for Silver

If the Democrats win both the House and Senate, short-term gold price fluctuations may be relatively limited, with funds subsequently refocusing on the fiscal deficit and the ever-expanding US national debt. The current US national debt has reached $40.5 trillion, averaging about $120,000 per US citizen, with only about half the population being taxpayers. The anticipated increase in fiscal pressure is also expected to activate investment demand for silver , which has been relatively weak since February. A complete Democratic victory does not necessarily mean that government spending will automatically expand; new spending bills still require presidential signature to take effect, but the direction of funding will change . The ongoing conflict with Iran, which has lasted for over 250 days without a solution, will likely face difficulties securing continued funding from a Democratic-led Congress. Only if the conflict ends soon can gold and silver regain their traditional safe-haven attributes. From a policy perspective, Democratic economic policies typically favor large-scale fiscal plans for social infrastructure and domestic manufacturing. Fiscal expansion is likely to increase the deficit, weaken the dollar, and benefit physical assets. At the same time, the Democrats are likely to push for or expand green energy legislation, which will significantly boost industrial physical demand for silver.

On the other hand, rising interest rates are putting downward pressure on precious metals, while silver has a buffering advantage.

A Democratic-controlled Senate and House of Representatives could also be bearish for precious metals. If the market expects real interest rates to remain high for a longer period, and US Treasury yields continue to rise, gold and silver prices will face downward pressure. Comparatively, gold will be more negatively impacted, while silver, supported by industrial demand, can offset some of the downward pressure from interest rates. Overall, a "blue sweep" scenario is generally bullish for both precious metals, with silver's upside potential significantly exceeding that of gold. Silver is currently at a crucial juncture, with prices very close to the $50 mark. This price level represents both a significant historical point in 1980 and a historical high in 2011. If silver fails to hold this level, the next support levels to watch are $47 and $42.

Conclusion

The midterm elections are not a single factor directly determining the rise and fall of gold and silver prices; rather, they are a chain reaction involving fiscal policy, interest rate expectations, and industrial policies. Silver is approaching a multi-decade historical high, exhibiting far greater volatility than gold. Its future price direction will depend on market pricing after the election results are announced. Spot silver daily chart source: FX678. As of 12:06 PM Beijing time on November 4th, spot silver was trading at $49.28 per ounce.