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2026-11-05 13:46:28
[Indonesia's Q3 GDP Grows 5.47% More Than Expected; Barclays Maintains Growth Forecast but Expects Central Bank to Raise Rates Next Year] (1) Indonesia's Q3 GDP grew 5.47% year-on-year, higher than Q2's 5.29% and market expectations of 5.18%; QoQ growth was 1.59%. (2) On the production side, manufacturing, trade, construction and information and communication industries were the main contributors; on the expenditure side, household consumption contributed the most, followed by investment and government spending. (3) Despite market volatility and asset sell-offs triggered by the Middle East conflict and MSCI warnings, Indonesia's economic growth accelerated, reinforcing external expectations for its growth momentum. (4) Barclays maintains its forecast of 5.4% GDP growth for Indonesia in both 2026 and 2027; the fiscal deficit for the first nine months was lower than expected, meaning the government has room to increase spending in Q4. (5) Barclays expects the Indonesian central bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.25% in Q2 and Q3 of 2027, depending on the exchange rate; the central bank may use hedging incentives or issue Indonesian rupiah securities to stabilize the rupiah.
