During Thursday's Asian trading session, USD/JPY bulls were unable to sustain their rebound from the previous weekly low of 157.40, with selling pressure persisting for two consecutive days. Bears are waiting for a decisive break below the 158.00 level to open up further downside potential. The release of the Bank of Japan's September monetary policy meeting minutes, in which members unanimously agreed that it was appropriate to continue raising policy rates and adjust the pace of easing, further solidifying market expectations for a December rate hike, provided a modest boost to the yen. This, coupled with the overall sell-off in the US dollar, created downward pressure on USD/JPY. The Democratic Party won both the House and Senate in the US midterm elections, leading to market expectations of a fiscal gridlock and limited government spending. Statements from senior Democrats pushing for an end to the Iran nuclear deal caused the market to shed its geopolitical risk premium, resulting in lower oil prices, reduced inflation concerns, and a decline in US Treasury yields, all of which continued to pressure the dollar. However, hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve provided some offsetting. CME FedWatch showed the market pricing in an over 80% probability of a December rate hike. Better-than-expected ADP employment data on Wednesday, with 86,000 new private sector jobs, reinforced the trading logic of the Fed maintaining its tightening stance, providing a floor for the dollar and USD/JPY exchange rate. The market's focus is now shifting to Friday's non-farm payroll report, which will directly determine the dollar's strength in the short term. Ahead of this crucial data release, market sentiment is cautious, compounded by persistent expectations of Japanese Ministry of Finance intervention to support the yen, making each USD/JPY rebound vulnerable to selling pressure. Short-term trading is likely to be range-bound; it is recommended to wait for a breakout before establishing directional positions. On the daily chart, USD/JPY has repeatedly attempted to break above the 200-day moving average at 158.65 but failed each time, maintaining a short-term bearish bias. Upward momentum is being consistently suppressed by this moving average, indicating insufficient stability for any rebound, with prices consolidating below this resistance level. Only a daily close above 158.65 would alleviate the current downward pressure and initiate a sustained recovery. The first support level is the previous night's low of 157.40, followed by the psychological level of 157.00, with the lower edge of the range at 156.65. A decisive break below 156.65 would be a new bearish signal, triggering a deeper decline. On the 4-hour chart, the price is slowly trending downwards, with rebounds gradually decreasing in height. The RSI is in a neutral-to-weak range, not yet deeply oversold. Short-term trading is expected to be range-bound, with 158.65 acting as a key level for both bulls and bears, and 156.65 a crucial support level for the bears. Volatility is likely to converge before the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Editor's Summary: Rising expectations of a central bank rate hike in the Japanese yen and a weakening dollar due to election-related negative news are jointly suppressing the USD/JPY pair. However, high expectations of a Fed rate hike are providing some offset, resulting in a range-bound trading pattern. The short-term risk is a significantly stronger non-farm payroll data release, which could drive a USD/JPY rebound towards the 158.65 resistance level. A potential opportunity is weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data, coupled with rising expectations of intervention, which could cause the pair to break below the 156.65 support level and extend its losses. We await a breakout from this range, paying close attention to the directional choice within the 156.65–158.65 range.