Alicia Levin, chief investment officer of BNY Wealth Management, points out that the biggest hidden danger in the global market right now is the protracted nature of the conflict with Iran, a black swan risk that has not yet been fully priced in. She frankly admits that the mainstream market consensus is betting on a quick end to the war in Iran, and the trading logic is based on the premise that the conflict will end quickly. This consensus expectation itself is precisely where the huge risks are hidden. For the past two months, Brent crude oil prices have remained above $100 per barrel, maintaining a high level since the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran at the end of February. However, with the Democrats gaining control of both the House and Senate, the market is re-evaluating the Middle East situation, leading to a recent rapid decline in oil prices. Brent crude is currently experiencing its largest weekly drop in over six years. The market is trading on a strong assumption that the new Congress will restrain US actions and ease tensions in the Middle East. In reality, while the intense fighting has temporarily subsided, the two sides have failed to reach a ceasefire agreement. Tehran awaits a US response to its plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a plan that also includes a demand to restart Iran's nuclear negotiations. Just this Monday, after the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired on US warplanes, the US immediately launched an attack on Qeshm Island, a key point in the strait, making the signs of de-escalation extremely fragile. Levin emphasized that the market has already fully priced in the scenario of a "quick end to the conflict," a clear indication of which is the continued weakening of the crude oil forward curve: Brent crude futures prices have consistently fallen below near-month contracts, with the April contract dropping to $88.42 per barrel, and July and further forward contracts even breaking below $84 per barrel. If the conflict drags on, this forward pricing logic will be completely overturned—what she calls a black swan event. BNY is not alone in issuing such warnings. Goldman Sachs released calculations this week suggesting that if shipping attacks in the Persian Gulf region continue to increase and refining facilities suffer sustained damage, the region's daily crude oil production could decrease by 3.5 million barrels compared to the 2025 average, potentially pushing the average Brent crude price to $130 per barrel in 2027. The spillover effects of the Middle East stalemate are directly influencing the interest rate hike paths of global central banks, thereby reshaping the pricing centers of US Treasury bonds, foreign exchange, and precious metals. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that unless there is a substantial reconciliation in the Middle East conflict, the Bank of England still has room for further interest rate hikes after its first rate increase in three years. The bank's stress scenario calculations show that under adverse conditions, the average international oil price will rise by about 30%, and the natural gas price increase will exceed 50%. Continued inflationary disturbances will force major economies to maintain tight monetary policies, which will bring sharp fluctuations to exchange rates, long-term bonds, and gold. On the asset allocation side, BNY Wealth clients have already begun to hedge portfolio risks using commodity and energy exposure. Meanwhile, US clients are generally concerned about the $1.99 trillion federal fiscal deficit in fiscal year 2026. However, the Levin team does not recommend selling US Treasuries (10-year and 30-year bonds): if economic growth expectations suddenly slow down, Treasuries will still play a ballast role in the portfolio. The team's judgment is that the global yield center has entered a structural upward range, coupled with the drag from the Iranian conflict and the high probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates twice more before the end of 2027, the US economic growth rate will slow from nearly 3% this year to around 2% next year. Levin believes that the impact of interest rate hikes on the technology sector is limited; leading AI companies have strong financing resilience, and the core issue is profit realization; funds will not withdraw from this sector on a large scale. After the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its best single-day performance in 18 months, US stock index futures diverged on Thursday, with equity assets becoming more of a secondary market variable. The biggest blind spot in the current market is the collective underestimation of the black swan event of a protracted conflict with Iran. In this scenario, asset pricing logic will shift rapidly: US Treasury bonds will simultaneously face two pulling forces—energy inflation pushing up long-term inflation premiums, while recession fears will spur safe-haven buying, significantly amplifying long-term bond volatility; non-US currencies will diverge, with energy-importing countries' currencies under pressure, while traditional safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc have upward potential; gold, as a dual hedge against geopolitical and inflation risks, possesses outstanding allocation value. Compared to stocks, gold, US Treasury bonds, and foreign exchange are the main battlegrounds in this round of geopolitical risk games. Once shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, the volatility of commodities, exchange rates, and fixed-income markets will far exceed that of the equity market.