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2026-11-06 09:26:30
[US October Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Job Market Broadly Stable, Wage Growth Still Lagging Inflation] 1. The US labor market has remained broadly stable over the past six months, and the October non-farm payrolls report is not expected to change this. JOLTS job openings, weekly initial jobless claims, and the ISM survey all point to a market characterized by "low hiring and low layoffs." Dan North, chief economist at Allianz Trade North America, stated that consensus expectations remain unencouraging. 2. Economists' consensus expects the US to add 62,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. The Chicago Fed's real-time unemployment rate model estimates that the October unemployment rate may have slightly decreased to 4.14% from 4.18% in September, rounded to 4.1%; the model shows the layoff rate remains low at 2.01%, compared to 2.03% previously; the hiring rate has improved slightly to 46.18%, compared to 45.48% previously. 3. Regarding wages, average hourly earnings in October are projected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, higher than September's 0.1%; the year-on-year growth rate is projected at 2.9%, lower than September's 3.0%. In contrast, the overall PCE inflation rate in September was 3.6%. The gap between inflation and wage growth is eroding consumer purchasing power as income growth lags behind price increases.
