On Monday (November 9) during Asian trading hours, US crude oil futures, after closing largely flat in the previous session, came under pressure, falling to around $89.80 at one point, and currently hovering around $90.50. Qatar, mediating between Washington and Tehran, denied reports that the US and Iran had failed to reach an agreement, stating that both sides are still working towards one. This statement comes as US President Trump prepares to meet with the Qatari prime minister on Monday. According to media reports, the talks are scheduled for 12:00 PM Eastern Time and will focus on securing a new ceasefire and resuming efforts to restart nuclear negotiations with Iran. It has been reported that Iran has submitted a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, but only on the condition that the US meets Tehran's demands (including sanctions waivers).

Signal Tug-of-War: Trump's Optimism vs. Rubio's Pessimism

Qatar's statement added another twist to the already mixed signals in the oil market that day. The market opened lower after Trump told the media that the US was highly unlikely to need to resume military action against Iran if its nuclear program made progress and the Strait of Hormuz reopened. Subsequently, prices recovered to near flat after Secretary of State Rubio stated that negotiations were unconstructive because Iran's demands were unacceptable and warned that diplomatic solutions were sometimes impossible. During the same trading session, the president's optimism and the secretary's pessimism offset each other, making it difficult for the market to form a unified directional judgment from official statements. Therefore, prices exhibited a "lower opening - recovery" swing rather than a one-sided trend.

Ground reality: Gas field attacked, Riyadh attacked, Strait disrupted

The ground-level context also does not support complacency. Reports of ongoing attacks on the Strait of Hormuz have been constant, with a suspected Iranian drone strike halting production at Iraq's Hormuz gas field and cutting off much of the Kurdish region's power. Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked the Aramco headquarters in Riyadh and claimed responsibility for Aramco oil storage facilities, placing the world's largest crude oil exporter directly on the front lines. Meanwhile, Washington is tightening the economic noose: U.S. Central Command announced the launch of "Task Force Iron Gate" as part of its efforts to combat the Iranian economy; there is also a reward of up to $20 million for information on Tehran's nuclear program, and pressure on Iraq to close most of its border crossings with Iran. Even with wavering diplomatic signals, the actual disruptions on the supply side and the continued pressure from sanctions provide solid ground support for the war risk premium.

Key points for the future: The Qatar summit is a recent milestone, while APEC presents the next diplomatic test.

For crude oil, the Qatar summit was a pivotal event during the trading session. A credible path back to a ceasefire and nuclear negotiations would reignite the sell-off triggered by Trump's earlier statements; conversely, if the disagreements over sanctions waivers proved insurmountable, as Rubio suggested, escalation risks would return to the forefront. The weekend's attacks on Iraqi gas and Saudi infrastructure, the ongoing unrest in the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington's tightening of the economic noose through the "Iron Gate Task Force" all provided downside support for the war risk premium. Until concrete progress is seen in the negotiations, headline-driven two-way volatility is more likely than a sustained trend in either direction. Trump's expected meetings with world leaders, including Putin, at next week's APEC summit will be the next diplomatic test.

in conclusion

Qatar denied the failure of US-Iran negotiations, stating that both sides were still working on it. Trump's meeting with the Qatari prime minister on Monday to discuss a new ceasefire and the resumption of nuclear talks signaled to the oil market that a diplomatic path still existed. However, prices fluctuated between Trump's optimism and Rubio's pessimism: crude oil opened lower due to Trump's optimism but recovered to near flat due to Rubio's pessimism, indicating that official statements were mutually offsetting and the market struggled to form a unified direction. Ground realities—the attack on Iraqi gas fields halting production, Houthi attacks on Riyadh Aramco facilities, continued disruptions in the Hormuz region, and economic pressure from the US "Iron Gate Task Force"—provided a floor for the war risk premium. The Qatar meeting is a key juncture in the near term: a credible ceasefire path will reignite selling pressure, while unresolved disagreements over sanctions waivers will bring escalation risks back to the forefront. Until concrete progress emerges, headline-driven two-way volatility is more likely than a one-sided trend; next week's APEC meeting between Trump and Putin will be the next diplomatic test. (US crude oil futures daily chart, source: FX678) At 14:00 Beijing time, US crude oil futures were trading at $90.19 per barrel.