On Tuesday in Asian trading, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, consolidated around 101.70 as markets awaited further news on the Middle East crisis and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). US President Trump stated that there was positive momentum in ending the conflict with Iran, that resuming strikes was "quite unlikely," and declared the conflict effectively over. However, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, refuted reports of positive negotiations and reiterated that Washington must accept seven conditions proposed by Tehran for the conflict to end. This statement perpetuated the geopolitical risk premium, thus supporting the safe-haven dollar. Furthermore, the strong US jobs report released last Friday reaffirmed market bets on an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in a greater than 80% probability of another Fed rate hike in December. This is another factor supporting the dollar index, although bulls are choosing to wait for the CPI report before establishing new positions; this key inflation data will be used to find more clues about the Fed's policy path. In addition, subsequent geopolitical news will play a crucial role in influencing the short-term price dynamics of the dollar and providing meaningful impetus for the dollar index. Meanwhile, the aforementioned fundamental background requires bears to remain cautious and prepare positions for any further depreciation. From a technical perspective, the US dollar index was previously trading above the 9-day moving average (101.95) and the 50-day moving average (101.36) , with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of approximately 57. Judging from the current price of 101.70, the dollar index has fallen below the 9-day moving average and is currently trading within the range of the 9-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating that short-term momentum has weakened compared to the previous period. If the 50-day moving average at 101.36 is breached, the previous "path of least resistance upward" structure will be damaged; if it can recover 101.95, the bullish structure will be restored. It should be emphasized that the above moving average positions are calculated based on yesterday's data, and today's real-time values need to be verified against the market. On the 4-hour chart, the US dollar index is consolidating in a narrow range around 101.70. Volatility is narrowing ahead of the CPI release, and the direction awaits data catalysts: if the CPI exceeds expectations, the US dollar index is expected to rise back above 101.95 and test higher levels; if inflation is lower than expected, it may fall to the 101.36 level. Editor's Summary: The core contradiction in the current US dollar index lies in the information gap between "Trump's claim that the conflict is over" and "Iran's rejection of reports of negotiations and insistence on its seven conditions"—the geopolitical premium has not truly cleared, which is the underlying reason why the dollar is finding support at 101.70. Coupled with a December rate hike probability exceeding 80%, the threshold for shorting the dollar has been raised. In the medium term, if CPI exceeds expectations and geopolitical negotiations resurface, the dollar index is expected to regain 101.95 and extend to higher levels; if inflation cools and substantial progress is made in the Middle East, the dollar index may fall below the 50-day moving average of 101.36, opening up more room for a correction. Key attention should be paid to the actual CPI readings, the specific content of Iran's seven conditions and the US response, and the transmission of oil prices to inflation expectations.