On Wednesday (November 11, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,035 per ounce. Gold prices fell nearly 3% on Tuesday as the US October CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, higher than expected, boosting the dollar and US Treasury yields and reinforcing market expectations for a larger rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Gold is expected to test the $4,000 per ounce level during the day. Oil prices fell to a two-month low on Tuesday as US officials downplayed the need for further military action against Iran, easing market concerns about further supply disruptions in the Middle East. US crude oil is currently trading around $86.36 per barrel.

Key Focus Today

stock market

U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.30% to 52,231.89, the S&P 500 down 0.38% to 7,520.93, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.74% to 25,065.87. The decline was attributed to the U.S. CPI rising 0.4% last month, exceeding economists' expectations of 0.3% and marking the third consecutive month with an increase of 0.4%. This solidified market expectations for a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve and exacerbated concerns about more aggressive rate increases. CME FedWatch showed the market had fully priced in at least a 25 basis point rate hike in December, with the probability of a 50 basis point hike rising to 11.8%. The two-year Treasury yield surged nearly 18.9 basis points to 4.736%. The S&P 500 technology sector performed worst, falling 1.4%, with Nvidia plunging 5.4% and down 9.6% over two days. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 0.4%. Federal Reserve officials such as Waller, Logan, and Schmid are hawkish, while Bowman acknowledged that inflation is a top priority; investors are also focused on Anthropic's expected IPO later this month, which aims to raise up to $64.4 billion and has a fully diluted valuation of up to $1.4 trillion.

Gold Market

Spot gold fell 2.61% on Tuesday to settle at $4,032.73 an ounce, as the U.S. October CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, higher than economists’ expectations of 0.3% (0.6% in September), boosting the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields and reinforcing market expectations for a larger rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Marex analyst Edward Meir stated that slightly higher-than-expected inflation data was a short-term negative for gold; Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that an overheated CPI report would support more aggressive action. CME FedWatch showed the market had fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in December, with the probability of a 50 basis point hike rising from zero before the data release to 10%, leading to a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields. A Standard Chartered report stated that gold prices continued to hold above the key $4,000/ounce level, with oil, inflation risks, and the stock market continuing to dominate gold trading. The market's focus was on expectations of a rate hike at the Fed's December meeting. Spot silver fell 3.55% to $51.51/ounce, palladium fell 1.2% to $1,028.83, and platinum fell 2.7% to $1,534.38.

oil market

Oil prices fell to a two-month low on Tuesday. WTI crude rose 0.07% to settle at $86.44 a barrel, but touched a two-month low of $83.88 during the session; Brent crude fell 0.15% to settle at $92.02 a barrel. Both indices closed at their lowest levels since August 31 for the second consecutive day and were in technically oversold territory. US officials downplayed the need for further military action against Iran, easing market concerns about further disruptions to Middle East supplies. However, prices recovered some losses after Iran's top security official, Mohsen Rezaei, stated that Tehran and Washington were not currently engaged in any negotiations. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that he has informed G7 allies that US economic sanctions and naval blockades are effective, therefore Trump does not need to launch a large-scale military operation against Iran. Trump also stated on Monday that he plans to postpone new military strikes against Iran following calls from regional countries. In last week's US midterm elections, voters punished Republicans for Trump's tariff policies that have driven up the cost of living and for the potential energy costs resulting from a war with Iran, leading to a landslide victory for Democrats in both the House and Senate. Russian and Ukrainian officials held their first peace talks since February in Abu Dhabi. Rubio described the talks as productive but did not reveal details, noting significant differences between the two sides on possible settlement terms. US October CPI rose more than expected, increasing the likelihood of a 0.5 percentage point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, which could dampen economic growth and slow oil demand. The US Energy Information Administration predicts that global oil consumption will fall from a record 104.4 million barrels per day in 2025 to 102.4 million barrels per day in 2026.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar index rose 0.58% on Tuesday to close at 102.24, as the U.S. October CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, higher than economists' forecast of 0.3%, reinforcing market bets on a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Following the data release, the dollar extended its gains against a basket of currencies, with the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note, which typically moves in tandem with Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, surging 18.44 basis points to 4.731%. Steve Engle, head of G10 FX research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that the market was surprised because the data seemed to confirm earlier hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Waller, who stated that the Fed should raise short-term borrowing costs at its December meeting. "Waller's hawkish stance has attracted market attention. This is the beginning of a rise in the dollar and interest rates," he said. He added that high CPI, especially the seemingly broad scope of inflation, is causing market concern. Since the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, the dollar's performance has been primarily influenced by oil trading, but now people are beginning to realize that the focus should be on inflation risks and the Fed's policy direction. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that the market expects a near 91% probability of a Fed rate hike in December. In an investor report, Corpay's chief market strategist, Carl Shamota, stated that the downside for the dollar in the short term remains limited. A resilient labor market and robust domestic economic activity support strong US consumption and prevent a sudden economic slowdown, making it difficult to foresee a sustained decline in the dollar before the end of the year. The euro fell 0.54% against the dollar to $1.1162, the dollar rose 0.53% against the yen to 158.72 yen, and the dollar rose 0.70% against the Swiss franc to 0.8251 francs.

International News

A tanker carrying approximately 40,000 tons of Russian diesel fuel has stopped en route to the US . International market services firm Kepler reported on November 10th that a tanker carrying approximately 40,000 tons of Russian diesel fuel, originally bound for New York, is currently anchored in the North Atlantic and has not yet reached the US East Coast; its next course is unknown. Kepler stated that the tanker, named "AGIOI FANENDES," loaded ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel at the port of Primorsk, Russia, on October 23rd. Initially, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) indicated that the ship's destination was New York, with an expected arrival date of November 7th, but this information was subsequently changed to "awaiting instructions." Data shows that since November 9th, the tanker has been almost stationary, maintaining a draft of 11 meters, indicating that the cargo has not yet been unloaded. The ship's next course is currently unclear. UK-based Wenward Maritime Analysis also reported on the same day that it was previously highly certain that two tankers carrying Russian diesel fuel were en route to the US, but one of them had turned back. Even if the other continues its journey to the US, its cargo is likely not diesel fuel. (Xinhua) Kalshi plans to launch futures tracking US CPI and core inflation on December 8. Elisabeth Diana, Kalshi's communications director, stated that the company plans to launch new futures contracts on December 8 that track the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core inflation excluding food and energy. These contracts will be similar to traditional futures, with expiration dates, and will be targeted at institutional investors, rather than the so-called perpetual contracts the company began offering earlier this year. Kalshi is best known for its prediction markets, offering binary event contracts linked to the US CPI; this futures launch falls under a different business. Ukrainian Foreign Minister: Direct Meeting Between Ukrainian and Russian Leaders Expected to Accelerate End of Conflict On the 10th local time, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sebiga stated that during the trilateral negotiations between Ukraine, the US, and Russia held in Abu Dhabi, UAE, Ukraine raised several core demands: easing tensions, implementing a ceasefire, establishing a security guarantee mechanism, and promoting a meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin. Sebiga believes that a direct meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian leaders could accelerate the end of the conflict. Ukraine also submitted specific ceasefire proposals for the Black Sea and energy sectors, and is currently awaiting a response from Russia. On the afternoon of the 10th local time, a new round of trilateral talks between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine was launched in Abu Dhabi, UAE, to explore ways to promote a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis. This marks the first time in nine months that the three parties have resumed face-to-face consultations since negotiations stalled in February. (CCTV News) Iranian Official: US Has Not Yet Clearly Responded to Iran's Proposal On the evening of the 10th local time, Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated that Iran demands a clear and direct response from the US regarding its proposals, but the US has not yet responded. He stated that the US's claims of "continuing negotiations with Iran" and "Iran meeting with the US in Qatar" are false rumors. (CCTV News) Iranian Foreign Minister: Supreme National Security Council Secretary and Vance No Meeting Scheduled According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) on the 10th, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that day that Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, and US Vice President Vance have not scheduled a meeting. Araqchi stated that reports of a meeting between Rezaei and Vance are "baseless" speculation, and "there is absolutely no plan to hold such a meeting." Araghchi stated that the United States should have realized sooner that it had not achieved, and could not achieve, any objectives in its war against Iran. The war will not end militarily, nor will it end with increased sanctions. The only solution is to "use respectful language, employ diplomatic means, and fulfill the demands and conditions put forward by Iran." These demands and conditions, outlined in the "two-day plan," remain in effect. (Xinhua) Iranian Chief of Staff Emphasizes Mission is to Resist the Enemy A newly built "missile city" of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officially opened on November 10. Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Abdullahhi inspected the latest achievements and combat readiness of the Revolutionary Guard's Aerospace Force. Abdullahhi stated that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's recent statement, "Either destroy Iran or be destroyed by Iran," is nothing new. "It is obvious that Israel and the United States behind it have suffered a complete defeat and are destined to fail." Abdullahhi emphasized that the will of the Iranian military "prevented the United States from succeeding," and that the mission of the Iranian armed forces is to resist the enemy, advising the enemy not to covet Iranian territory. (CCTV International News) Zimbabwe Maintains January 2027 Lithium Concentrate Export Ban, Mining Companies Must Accelerate Local Processing Facility Construction According to foreign media reports, the Zimbabwean government has maintained the January 2027 deadline for ending lithium concentrate exports, prompting mining companies to accelerate the construction and commissioning of local processing facilities to extract greater value from mineral resources. Minister of Mining and Mineral Development Polite Kambamura has instructed the ministry to retain this deadline in the 2027 planning scheme, despite producers' appeals that some processing projects may not be ready in time. According to Mining Zimbabwe, Kambamura stated that the president has instructed that from January 2027, Zimbabwe will only export lithium sulfate. This stance leaves little room for lithium producers to seek an extension; producers have argued that the industry needs to complete the infrastructure required for local concentrate processing by around June 2027. Singapore Launches Gold Custody Service for Overseas Central Banks and Official Institutions Singapore has launched a gold custody service for overseas central banks and official institutions, aiming to capitalize on global demand for diversified gold reserve storage. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced on Tuesday that its gold reserves will be stored in the National Currency Vault, which currently has a capacity of 500 tons and can be expanded to meet growing demand. MAS Chairman and Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong stated that Singapore has no intention of replacing other gold centers or gold custody services; as global demand for gold as a reserve asset grows, central banks are seeking alternatives to enhance the resilience of their gold reserves. The statement also noted that the MAS will provide gold custody accounts to certain precious metals banks with operations in Singapore and the relevant expertise.

Domestic News

China to Build Large-Scale Computing Network in Space Recently, the "Nebula Constellation Project" and other achievements in the industrialization of space cloud technology were released, marking a crucial step in the development of China's "space cloud" ecosystem from technology verification to industrialization. The "Nebula Constellation Project," jointly developed by the Aerospace Information Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and domestic science and technology enterprises, is a fully domestically developed space computing network and a key project for the industrialization of the space cloud ecosystem. What is space computing power? Simply put, it involves transferring the computing power of data centers to satellites, turning them into "computers with wings," directly completing data acquisition, processing, and output in space. Compared to the ground, space offers a uniquely advantageous computing environment: the continuous supply of solar energy alleviates power supply pressure. With terrestrial data centers facing energy consumption bottlenecks, space computing power is becoming a new direction in global computing power competition. Shao Zongyou, Chairman of Zhongke Xingyun Space Intelligence Technology (Hefei) Co., Ltd., stated, "We utilize the computing power of this 'constellation' to build a large-scale computing network in space. This allows us to leverage the computing power on the ground to solve problems through space-ground collaboration and simultaneous computation." (CCTV Finance) China's Goods Trade Reaches 44.81 Trillion Yuan in First 10 Months, Up 20% Year-on-Year. According to customs statistics, in the first 10 months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 44.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%, maintaining a strong growth momentum. Exports reached 25.99 trillion yuan, up 17.6%; imports reached 18.82 trillion yuan, up 23.6%. In October, imports and exports totaled 4.87 trillion yuan, up 31.2%. Exports reached 2.79 trillion yuan, up 28.7%; imports reached 2.08 trillion yuan, up 34.7%. As of October, both China's imports and exports have maintained double-digit growth for six consecutive months. (CCTV)