WTI crude oil rebounded slightly in Asian trading on Wednesday after two consecutive days of declines, trading around $85.60 , currently at approximately $86.20 . However, with signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran, oil prices still face downward pressure. US President Trump's suggestion that further military strikes against Iran may no longer be necessary has fueled optimism about a potential diplomatic solution. Meanwhile, congressional Democrats are considering using the upcoming government funding deadline to push the Trump administration to end the conflict. However, uncertainty remains: Iran demands the lifting of US sanctions and the naval blockade before agreeing to talks. Meanwhile, despite ongoing attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, oil shipments in the Middle East have almost returned to pre-conflict levels. This recovery in shipments constitutes the most direct pressure on the supply side. US benchmark crude oil has fallen nearly 20% from its peak at the end of October, and its recent gains have been significantly reversed as downgrade expectations intensify and regional oil exports continue to recover. Rabobank analysts noted that Brent crude "fell $4.60 to $93.70 per barrel amid expectations of easing geopolitical tensions, the lowest since September." Previously, Trump stated over the weekend that the US was "highly unlikely" to order a "massive strike" against Iran, provided Iran signed a "very strong deal." However, the bank cautioned that the definition of a "very strong deal" could be "quite flexible, depending on how the Trump administration plans to define its 'victory' in the Middle East after its midterm election defeat." Technically, the daily WTI MACD remains in a downtrend , and after hitting a new low in the correction, the bullish rebound has been weak, raising the possibility of further downward movement. The area around $88 forms daily resistance; failure to break above this level will maintain the bearish structure. $84 is a key low; a break below this level will open up further downside potential. Referring to previous data, the current price of $86.20 is still close to the 100-day simple moving average around $86.40; the hold or break of this level can serve as a secondary indicator of short-term strength. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD has shown divergence , and the rebound after short-term oversold conditions has not yet shown reversal signals. This means that the current rise is more likely a technical correction within a downtrend than a trend reversal. Intraday resistance is around $87.50 , with support at $84 . Until $88 is effectively broken and the 4-hour MACD divergence transforms into a true reversal, the rebound should be treated as a correction. Editor's Summary: The core contradiction in WTI crude oil prices currently lies in the hedging between the substantial supply easing resulting from "US-Iran diplomatic easing and the restoration of Middle East transportation to pre-conflict levels," and the risk premium maintained by "Iran's insistence on lifting sanctions and the naval blockade, and the continued attacks in the Strait of Hormuz." The hard fact of restored transportation has a stronger suppressive effect on oil prices than any verbal pronouncements. $88 is the threshold for whether the bearish structure has been broken, while $84 is the switch for further downside potential. In the medium term, if the Trump administration accepts a flexible agreement to define "victory" and Iranian sanctions are lifted, the geopolitical premium will be further cleared, and oil prices may fall below $84, opening up greater downside potential. If negotiations break down again or attacks escalate, the risk premium will quickly return, and oil prices are expected to rebound above $88. Key attention should be paid to the substantive progress of US-Iran negotiations and the specific terms of the "agreement," the frequency of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, and the progress of Democratic pressure regarding the funding deadline.