The pound held steady against the dollar around 1.3275 in early Asian trading on Thursday. This marked the second consecutive day of declines, with the pair falling approximately 75 pips from the previous day's low of 1.3350 and breaking below the key 4-hour moving average support level of 1.3314. Traders continued to assess the policy paths of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. The preliminary estimate of UK third-quarter GDP will be released later this Thursday. Bank of England policymaker Megan Green said on Wednesday that it was appropriate to "proactively tighten the stance of monetary policy" to guard against the risk of wage growth remaining high and businesses passing on these costs. Green's hawkish comments could provide some support for the pound against the dollar in the short term. In the US, traders increased their bets on a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve following higher-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said earlier this week that he would support a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, and could push for a 50-basis-point hike if inflation data is worse than expected. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is currently pricing in an 87.3% probability of a rate hike at the December policy meeting, and a 12.7% probability of a 50-basis-point hike. This means that the market consensus on "whether to raise rates" is solid, while pricing in the "magnitude of the rate hike" is still fluctuating. Elias Haddad, global head of market strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, said, "The broad-based dollar strength was primarily supported by a hawkish shift in expectations for the federal funds rate driven by the hot October CPI data, and also amplified by recent comments from Fed officials." Societe Generale strategists noted that UK interest rates had a solid start to the week, with "the 10-year rate swap opening flat at 4.70% , having held above 4.69% last week." They indicated nearby technical levels as "support at 4.58% and resistance at 4.78% ," and pointed out that Governor Bailey's speech later today in Zurich, his first appearance since the Monetary Policy Committee's rate hike week, is a key event for pound and UK interest rate traders. Looking ahead, Societe Generale notes a dense global data release schedule, including CPI, PPI, a Fed speech, the EU's second Q3 GDP reading, the UK's preliminary Q3 GDP estimate, and CPI data from Mexico, Norway, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and India. In the UK, the focus is on Thursday's growth data, with Societe Generale forecasting a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q3. Green's speech sent a strong hawkish signal, with his FXS speech tracking score at 9.4/10 , significantly higher than the historical baseline of 7.7/10. His emphasis on a "proactive tightening of monetary policy stance" signals a clear shift in policy guidance towards tightening. He stated that UK wage growth is "too high" and that labor market slack is smaller than previously thought, reinforcing the case for earlier and stronger action. The combination of persistent wage pressures and shrinking slack supports pricing in a higher probability of further Bank of England tightening in the market, thus creating a stronger sterling bias. Technically, the GBP/USD pair maintains its recent bearish tone on the daily chart, hovering around 100. The daily simple moving average is below the Bollinger Band middle line . The exchange rate is consolidating in the lower half of the recent Bollinger Band range, with the lower band providing nearby demand. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43 , suggesting a mildly negative momentum rather than oversold conditions. On the upside, initial resistance is concentrated at the Bollinger Band middle line at 1.3370 , followed by the 100-day simple moving average at 1.3400 , with stronger resistance near the Bollinger Band upper line at 1.3475 . On the downside, immediate support is seen at the Bollinger Band lower line at 1.3260 ; a decisive break below this level would open up further downside potential, while continued trading above it would keep the exchange rate within the range, although it remains under pressure from the moving average resistance above. Editor's Summary : The two forces currently supporting the pound are asymmetrical: on one hand, there's the Bank of England's hawkish stance (Green's 9.4/10 statement) ( "proactive tightening," excessively high wages, and less room for maneuver), which is the strongest bullish reason for the pound; on the other hand, the dollar has strengthened broadly due to CPI data and Waller's comments, and the 50 basis point tail risk remains (12.7%). Amid this tug-of-war, the pound has fallen for two consecutive days, indicating stronger dollar pressure. The lower Bollinger Band at 1.3260 is currently a key support level, with moving averages at 1.3370 and 1.3400 providing resistance above. In the medium term, if the UK's Q3 GDP (Societe Generale predicts 0.7% QoQ) and Bailey's hawkish remarks are favorable, the pound is expected to hold 1.3260 and rebound to test 1.3370; if GDP falls short of expectations, or if the dollar continues to be driven by the 50 basis point expectation, a break below 1.3260 could open up a deeper downtrend. Key attention should be paid to Thursday's preliminary UK Q3 GDP figures and Bailey's speech in Zurich, Friday's US PPI, and further developments in the probability of a December rate hike and the probability of a 50 basis point increase.