Download App

Spot gold has just broken through the $4050.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $4049.45/ounce, down 1.71% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4057.60/ounce, down 1.36% on the day.

Türkiye’s central bank said on Monday that the country’s current account deficit narrowed to $1.459 billion in May.

The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3913.79 points, down 2.06%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4695.38 points, down 1.79%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14522.85 points, down 3.48%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3723.52 points, down 3.10%; and the SME Composite Index closed at 14568.67 points, down 3.87%.

[US-Iran Military Conflict Escalates, Boosting Oil Prices and Pressures Gold Prices, Dropping Over 1.5% and Briefly Falling Below $4050] 1. During Monday's Asian session, spot gold fell as much as 1.8% to $4044 per ounce. The escalating US-Iran military conflict, with Iran announcing the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pushed oil prices up by over 5%, triggering renewed market concerns about inflation and interest rate hikes, thus putting downward pressure on gold prices. 2. The US and Iran engaged in fierce missile and drone strikes over the weekend. Iran attacked US facilities along the Persian Gulf coast and announced the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, oil prices rose sharply, the US dollar and US Treasury yields rose in tandem, and Asian stock markets generally came under pressure. The South Korean stock market briefly triggered a circuit breaker, closing down nearly 9%, SK Hynix fell 15.3%, and Samsung Electronics fell 10.7%. 3. Market analysts pointed out that gold would face pressure should conflict break out in the Gulf region. Rising oil prices have exacerbated market concerns about inflation and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates this year. 4. This week, the market will closely watch Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's first semi-annual testimony to Congress, as well as key economic data such as June CPI, PPI, and retail sales. Speeches by other policymakers, including Vice Chairman Bowman and Governor Waller, will also be closely watched. 5. CME Group's FedWatch data shows that traders now expect a 72% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, up from about 63% last week. Regarding positioning, as of the week ending July 7, COMEX gold speculators reduced their net long positions by 1,964 contracts to 114,854 contracts.

[Survey shows French unemployment rate may rise to 8.2% in 2026, the highest level since 2019] (1) A survey of 16 economists conducted from July 3 to 8 shows that France's unemployment rate is expected to reach 8.2% in 2026. If true, this would be the highest level since 2019, once again raising concerns about the vulnerability of the Eurozone's second-largest economy. (2) Before the outbreak of the war with Iran, the French economy was already showing signs of weakness. In the first quarter of this year, the unemployment rate soared to its highest point in five years. (3) During the same period, France's GDP experienced its first quarterly negative growth since the COVID-19 pandemic, further exacerbating the uncertainty of the economic outlook.

The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Russian armed forces struck two ferries and a container ship in the port of Chernomorsk, which were transporting supplies for the Ukrainian armed forces. The attack damaged port infrastructure used for military cargo transport, including storage tanks.