Why did gold open low and end high? Market review and market outlook
2025-07-28 17:46:59
Last week, gold showed a polarized trend. It rose rapidly at the beginning of the week, rising all the way from the opening price of $3347.05, and hit a high of $3433 on Tuesday. However, it then encountered resistance and fell back, falling to $3383 on Wednesday, and continued to fall after a narrow range on Thursday, reaching $3327 on Friday, giving up all the gains of the week, and finally rebounded to around $3340 and ended in a volatile situation. The overall situation showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, and a game between longs and shorts.
Bullish comments and reasons
Bullish comments:
Richard Chukan, President of Asset Strategy International, said: "Bullish! Whether the Fed maintains interest rates or cuts them, gold and silver will rise." At the same time, James Stanley, senior market strategist, said: "Bullish, the pullback is temporary and is used to hedge against the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, but gold will continue to rise." 66% of retail traders believe that gold will rise.
The main reasons for the rise:
Supported by the Fed’s policy expectations: It is believed that whether the Fed maintains the current interest rate (in line with expectations) or unexpectedly cuts interest rates, it will drive gold prices up - maintaining interest rates will continue the current expectations of easing, while cutting interest rates will directly reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold (gold does not generate interest, and its attractiveness increases when interest rates fall).
Safe-haven and long-term demand remain unchanged: Although affected by the trade agreement in the short term, the global safe-haven demand for "certainty and uncertainty" remains, and central banks (such as China) are continuing to buy gold and will not sell the gold in the short term, providing long-term support for gold prices.
The technical pullback is a accumulation of momentum for the rise: the current decline is considered to be a short-term correction, which is "accumulating momentum before the rise", and historical trends show that gold can still rise in tandem with the stock market when risk appetite picks up.
Look at the comments and reasons for the shock
Look at the shocking speech:
Senior market analyst Newsom said: "It will fluctuate, but it will not collapse. It may fall slightly due to the shift of buying to silver and copper. The risk aversion logic has not changed." Dane, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, said: "The view has not changed. It fluctuates in a narrow range and waits for major news. The US dollar may rebound, but there are gold buyers waiting for an opportunity."
“It’s been trading sideways for a few months, in a 3,250-3,400 range, with no catalysts, and it’s been forming a flag pattern with alternating higher highs and lower lows,” said Daniel Pavlonis, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures.
"It continues to consolidate with a downside bias as risk appetite rises in the market," said Kitco senior analyst Wyckoff Wyckoff.
50% of industry experts believe that the market will go sideways.
The core reasons for the shock:
Balance of bullish and bearish factors: On the one hand, safe-haven demand and central bank gold purchases support gold prices, and there is no risk of collapse; on the other hand, buying may shift to other metals such as silver and copper, and the US dollar may rebound, suppressing the upward momentum of gold prices, leading to a stalemate between bullish and bearish forces.
Lack of breakthrough news: Gold has been fluctuating in the 3250-3400 range for several months, waiting for major catalysts (such as details of the trade agreement, a policy shift by the Federal Reserve, and inflation data). Before that, it will be difficult to break out of the range.
Technical range constraints: Multiple attempts to attack the 3450 resistance level have failed. At the same time, there is a support level of 3250-3300 below. The high and low points alternate to form a "flag-shaped consolidation", and there is a lack of momentum to break the range in the short term.
Look at the comments and reasons for the decline
Look at the falling speeches:
“Prices have now peaked and are neutral in the short term (implying a downside bias),” Commerzbank analysts said.
"Gold is weak and could fall below 3,321.50, targeting 3,250," said Mark Chandler, managing director of Bannockburn Global FX.
"There is a risk of a sharp correction, possibly to 3,150 or even 3,050," said Alex Kupteskovic, senior market analyst at FxPro.
Michael Moor, founder of MoorAnalytics, said: "For the market to fall, the technicals show pressure and the market may continue to fall."
36% of industry experts believe it will fall.
The core reasons for the decline:
Failure to break through the resistance level, ample supply: Gold has failed to hit the 3450 resistance level four times since April, indicating that there is ample supply at high levels and investors tend to take profits (close long positions) and turn to other assets (such as platinum group metals).
Weakened safe-haven demand: Positive trade agreements (such as the US-Japan and EU-US agreements) have reduced market risk aversion, weakened gold's safe-haven appeal, and led to reduced buying.
Technical pullback signal: The gold price has fallen to near the 50-day moving average. If it falls below this line, it may trigger a technical sell-off; and form a "lower high", which is in line with the pullback trend, with the target pointing to below 3300 or even 3050 (close to the 200-day moving average).
The US dollar may bottom out: If the US dollar rebounds, it will suppress gold denominated in US dollars (gold and the US dollar are usually negatively correlated), further increasing downward pressure.
Outlook
Gold is a reservoir of funds. Funds will flow in the bond market, foreign exchange market, commodity market, stock market, and real estate market. Funds tend to seek benefits and avoid risks. If there are big opportunities in any of these products, the funds in gold will have the motivation to migrate. You can pay attention to the recent performance of other products. There will be a seesaw effect. For example: if the global economic recovery is lower than expected, the US bond yields fall, and the US dollar index falls, gold can break away from the US dollar index and rise with US stocks. If Asian and European stocks go out of the bull market, the US dollar index also falls, and the reduction in bond interest rates will not change the flow of gold funds to other equity assets.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: Yihuitong)
Bullish comments and reasons
Bullish comments:
Richard Chukan, President of Asset Strategy International, said: "Bullish! Whether the Fed maintains interest rates or cuts them, gold and silver will rise." At the same time, James Stanley, senior market strategist, said: "Bullish, the pullback is temporary and is used to hedge against the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, but gold will continue to rise." 66% of retail traders believe that gold will rise.
The main reasons for the rise:
Supported by the Fed’s policy expectations: It is believed that whether the Fed maintains the current interest rate (in line with expectations) or unexpectedly cuts interest rates, it will drive gold prices up - maintaining interest rates will continue the current expectations of easing, while cutting interest rates will directly reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold (gold does not generate interest, and its attractiveness increases when interest rates fall).
Safe-haven and long-term demand remain unchanged: Although affected by the trade agreement in the short term, the global safe-haven demand for "certainty and uncertainty" remains, and central banks (such as China) are continuing to buy gold and will not sell the gold in the short term, providing long-term support for gold prices.
The technical pullback is a accumulation of momentum for the rise: the current decline is considered to be a short-term correction, which is "accumulating momentum before the rise", and historical trends show that gold can still rise in tandem with the stock market when risk appetite picks up.
Look at the comments and reasons for the shock
Look at the shocking speech:
Senior market analyst Newsom said: "It will fluctuate, but it will not collapse. It may fall slightly due to the shift of buying to silver and copper. The risk aversion logic has not changed." Dane, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, said: "The view has not changed. It fluctuates in a narrow range and waits for major news. The US dollar may rebound, but there are gold buyers waiting for an opportunity."
“It’s been trading sideways for a few months, in a 3,250-3,400 range, with no catalysts, and it’s been forming a flag pattern with alternating higher highs and lower lows,” said Daniel Pavlonis, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures.
"It continues to consolidate with a downside bias as risk appetite rises in the market," said Kitco senior analyst Wyckoff Wyckoff.
50% of industry experts believe that the market will go sideways.
The core reasons for the shock:
Balance of bullish and bearish factors: On the one hand, safe-haven demand and central bank gold purchases support gold prices, and there is no risk of collapse; on the other hand, buying may shift to other metals such as silver and copper, and the US dollar may rebound, suppressing the upward momentum of gold prices, leading to a stalemate between bullish and bearish forces.
Lack of breakthrough news: Gold has been fluctuating in the 3250-3400 range for several months, waiting for major catalysts (such as details of the trade agreement, a policy shift by the Federal Reserve, and inflation data). Before that, it will be difficult to break out of the range.
Technical range constraints: Multiple attempts to attack the 3450 resistance level have failed. At the same time, there is a support level of 3250-3300 below. The high and low points alternate to form a "flag-shaped consolidation", and there is a lack of momentum to break the range in the short term.
Look at the comments and reasons for the decline
Look at the falling speeches:
“Prices have now peaked and are neutral in the short term (implying a downside bias),” Commerzbank analysts said.
"Gold is weak and could fall below 3,321.50, targeting 3,250," said Mark Chandler, managing director of Bannockburn Global FX.
"There is a risk of a sharp correction, possibly to 3,150 or even 3,050," said Alex Kupteskovic, senior market analyst at FxPro.
Michael Moor, founder of MoorAnalytics, said: "For the market to fall, the technicals show pressure and the market may continue to fall."
36% of industry experts believe it will fall.
The core reasons for the decline:
Failure to break through the resistance level, ample supply: Gold has failed to hit the 3450 resistance level four times since April, indicating that there is ample supply at high levels and investors tend to take profits (close long positions) and turn to other assets (such as platinum group metals).
Weakened safe-haven demand: Positive trade agreements (such as the US-Japan and EU-US agreements) have reduced market risk aversion, weakened gold's safe-haven appeal, and led to reduced buying.
Technical pullback signal: The gold price has fallen to near the 50-day moving average. If it falls below this line, it may trigger a technical sell-off; and form a "lower high", which is in line with the pullback trend, with the target pointing to below 3300 or even 3050 (close to the 200-day moving average).
The US dollar may bottom out: If the US dollar rebounds, it will suppress gold denominated in US dollars (gold and the US dollar are usually negatively correlated), further increasing downward pressure.
Outlook
Gold is a reservoir of funds. Funds will flow in the bond market, foreign exchange market, commodity market, stock market, and real estate market. Funds tend to seek benefits and avoid risks. If there are big opportunities in any of these products, the funds in gold will have the motivation to migrate. You can pay attention to the recent performance of other products. There will be a seesaw effect. For example: if the global economic recovery is lower than expected, the US bond yields fall, and the US dollar index falls, gold can break away from the US dollar index and rise with US stocks. If Asian and European stocks go out of the bull market, the US dollar index also falls, and the reduction in bond interest rates will not change the flow of gold funds to other equity assets.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: Yihuitong)
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
