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2025-07-29 21:18:14
[Tech Stock Fog: Is the "Fake" Boom Amidst the AI Frenzy a Pause or a Turning Point?] ⑴ On July 29th, US stock index futures rose slightly, and the Stoxx Europe 600 index also rose by about 0.5%. The US dollar, gold, and crude oil all recorded gains. ⑵ Despite the widespread enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI), tech stocks, weighted by market capitalization, only outperformed the broader market by 70 basis points in the first half of 2025. ⑶ Bernstein analysts point out that the only time tech stocks have outperformed the broader market by less than 100 basis points is back to 2013, marking a "historically weak period" for the tech sector, which had long led the market. ⑷ However, excluding Apple and Google, considered "AI laggards," the performance of tech stocks is dramatically different, outperforming the broader market by over 690 basis points. ⑸ Among them, eight AI leaders, including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta, contributed nearly all of the excess returns of tech stocks, outperforming the broader market by as much as 1,200 basis points. ⑹ Apple is down 14.5% year-to-date, while Alphabet is up just 1.7%, highlighting the significant divergence even within tech giants. ⑺ Technology stocks currently account for 43% of the top 1,500 stocks in the United States, a record high, while the top ten tech stocks account for almost 80% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 Information Technology Index. ⑻ Despite this, the sub-index has only risen 13.3% year-to-date, leading Bernstein to maintain a "market weight" rating for the technology sector in the second half of 2025. ⑼ Bernstein believes that valuations remain high, growth prospects are weaker than historical levels, and the risks of the AI digestion period make them not recommend investors to "strongly overweight" technology stocks.
