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2025-07-31 09:03:51
[China Merchants Securities: US Stocks Seem to Be Pricing in No Rate Cut in September] A China Merchants Securities research report indicates that the Federal Reserve held its interest rate meeting on July 30th, maintaining the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50% and maintaining the pace of balance sheet reduction. Powell remains concerned about the risk of stagflation, meaning it will be difficult for the Fed to cut rates as long as the inflation gap exceeds the employment gap. Considering ongoing transport, the additional tariffs imposed on August 1st will only be reflected in September's import data, and then further feed through to inflation in October and November. If this is the case, the impact of tariff inflation may be slower and more prolonged, potentially delaying the Fed's decision to cut interest rates, making a September rate cut a possibility. However, once the tariff inflation threshold is crossed, a rate cut would become a natural outcome. The market may be preparing for no rate cut in September. Currently, the market is pricing in a 45.2% probability of a September rate cut, and the risk-free rate is no longer a positive factor.
