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2025-07-31 15:27:14
The Shanghai Composite Index plummeted 1.2% in a single day, policy expectations were dashed, but the monthly trend still achieved its best performance since September. 1. A-shares experienced a significant correction on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 1.2%, its largest single-day drop since April 7. Analysts point out that investors had expected the Politburo meeting of the Communist Party of China to release stronger stimulus policies, but the meeting only emphasized policy continuity and long-term structural reforms. Coupled with expectations of a delayed interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, market risk appetite quickly cooled. 2. Although the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.7% in July, its largest monthly gain since September, cyclical stocks and real estate stocks were the hardest hit. The CSI 300 Real Estate Index plummeted 4.3%, with Vanke A shares falling over 3%. The CSI Steel Index led the decline, falling 3.9%. The ChiNext Index and the STAR Market 50 Index each fell 1.7%, indicating that growth stocks were also under pressure. 3. The official manufacturing PMI contracted for the fourth consecutive month in July, with weak new orders and export data highlighting demand-side pressures. Citigroup's report believes that the failure of the Politburo meeting to mention real estate stimulus measures has exacerbated sector concerns, but it is expected that local policies may heat up again at the end of the third quarter. Securities analysts pointed out that there is already a need for technical adjustments above the 3,600 point level of the Shanghai Composite Index, and the vacuum of economic data and policies has accelerated profit-taking. 4. The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged further suppressed global risk assets, and Powell's statement weakened expectations of a September rate cut. Analysts said that the difference in the pace of domestic and foreign policies may exacerbate short-term fluctuations in A-shares, but the medium- and long-term reform orientation may promote market structural differentiation, and attention should be paid to the August data and the implementation of policy details.
