On Thursday (August 7th) in the Asian session, US crude oil prices saw a 0.89% rise, currently trading around 64.92. After five consecutive days of decline, oil prices rebounded due to short-covering and profit-taking. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia raised its crude oil prices to Asian customers for the second consecutive month, demonstrating confidence in oil demand. While oil prices rebounded, the potential for a rebound may be constrained by the dual pressures of oversupply and capital constraints.



The surge in Russian crude oil exports and the withdrawal of capital from Wall Street are forming a double shackle, suppressing the room for rebound in international oil prices.

According to Reuters data on Thursday (August 7), crude oil shipments from Russia's western ports are expected to increase to 2 million barrels per day in August, 200,000 barrels per day more than originally planned, due to the refinery shutdown caused by the Ukrainian drone attack five days ago.

The complete shutdown of the New Kuibyshev refinery and the halving of the Ryazan refinery's production capacity have forced Russia to urgently divert Urals crude oil originally intended for domestic processing to the export market. Spot traders have locked in an additional ten Aframax tankers to meet transportation demand.

This sudden supply shock directly exacerbated global crude oil inventory pressure, resonating with OPEC+'s recent decision to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day, jointly suppressing Brent crude oil prices below $70 per barrel.

Meanwhile, Wall Street's capital retrenchment of the fossil fuel industry is reshaping market expectations.

Bloomberg data shows that in the first half of 2025, oil and gas loans of the six major banks fell 25% year-on-year to US$73 billion, with Morgan Stanley's oil and gas loan business seeing the largest decline of 54%.

This deteriorating financing environment is directly reflected in the industry fundamentals: the scale of global upstream mergers and acquisitions has plummeted by 34% year-on-year, US shale transactions have stagnated due to overvaluation and declining reserve quality, and the number of active drilling rigs in the Permian Basin has dropped to the lowest level since 2021.

Although the Trump administration's withdrawal from the Net Zero Banking Alliance sent a political signal, the decline in actual investment in the industry is more due to market risks - increased oil price volatility and depletion of shale inventories have led to continued low expectations for capital returns.

This structural contradiction is particularly evident in the spot market: the discount of Urals crude oil, which Russia is eager to sell, has widened to $7 per barrel, while US shale producers insist that WTI oil prices stabilize above $65 before they will restart production increases.

Goldman Sachs predicts that the global crude oil surplus will be 800,000 barrels per day in 2025, and will further expand to 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026. This imbalance between supply and demand makes it difficult for the geopolitical premium to continue.

While tensions in the Middle East may temporarily push up oil prices, Russia's ability to circumvent sanctions through shadow fleets (such as the actual average export price exceeding $80 per barrel in 2023) will ultimately suppress the room for price rebound.


(US crude oil daily chart, source: Yihuitong)

At 10:23 Beijing time, the price of U.S. crude oil is currently at $64.98 per barrel.