CITIC Construction Investment Futures: Expectations of rate cuts strengthen as attention focuses on US-Russia meeting
2025-08-11 09:44:28
Precious Metals: The US and Russia are seeking a ceasefire agreement on Ukraine. Trump stated that the two countries are "very close" to reaching an agreement on Ukraine, and that their leaders will meet on August 15th. This has increased market risk appetite, while also placing potential pressure on precious metals. However, the market has also been closely watching the successor to the Federal Reserve Chair, and coupled with the recent dovish stance of Fed officials, expectations of interest rate cuts continue to support precious metals. Overall, the potential for a US-Russia agreement has reduced market demand for risk aversion, putting some pressure on precious metals. However, the recent strengthening of expectations for a Fed rate cut has also maintained support for precious metals. In the short term, the market is mixed, with further developments between the US and Russia warranting close attention. Regarding trading strategies, partially take profits on long positions and prioritize risk management. The reference range for Shanghai Gold 2510 is 760-800 yuan/gram, and the reference range for Shanghai Silver 2510 is 9000-9400 yuan/kilogram.
Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.26%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.38%, the STAR Market 50 Index fell 1.39%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.24%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.33%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.22%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.35%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1,710.227 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 115.263 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan primary sectors, the best performing sectors were: General Purpose (1.56%), Building Materials (1.16%), and Building Decoration (1.14%). The worst performing sectors were: Computers (-2.38%), Electronics (-1.15%), and Media (-0.96%). Regarding basis, the IH and IF basis weakened slightly, while the IC and IM basis strengthened slightly. The annualized basis rates for the IH and IF quarterly contracts are -0.30% and -3.60%, respectively; while the annualized basis rates for the IC and IM quarterly contracts are -11.30% and -12.00%, respectively. For hedging purposes, quarterly and monthly contracts may be considered for short positions. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fluctuated within a narrow range last trading day, closing slightly lower and experiencing a decline in trading volume. Cyclical sectors such as construction, building materials, and steel performed strongly, while technology and financial sectors declined, leading to a rapid rotation of short-term funds. Over the weekend, the National Bureau of Statistics released inflation data, showing that the CPI remained flat year-on-year and the PPI continued to decline, but the year-on-year decline remained flat and the month-on-month decline narrowed. This week is approaching the expiration of the 90-day suspension of US-China tariffs on August 12. Depending on the progress of the second round of US-China negotiations, relevant details may be disclosed in the near future. This may have a relatively short-term impact on the stock market and warrants continued monitoring. In August, the interim reports of listed companies will be disclosed one after another. The moderately loose monetary policy since September last year is expected to continue to reduce the short-term operating and financing costs of enterprises, and corporate profits are expected to pick up. The two-way recovery in profits and valuations may prompt small and medium-sized stocks to perform better than the broader market. It is recommended to maintain long positions in IC and IM.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.26%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.38%, the STAR Market 50 Index fell 1.39%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.24%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.33%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.22%, the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.35%, and the SZSE 100 ETF fell 0.24%. Trading volume across the two markets totaled 1.710227 trillion yuan, down approximately 115.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level sectors, the best-performing were comprehensive (1.56%), building materials (1.16%), and building decoration (1.14%). The worst-performing were media (-0.96%), electronics (-1.15%), and computers (-2.38%). The stock market performance from late June to July was largely driven by a valuation correction driven by policies and liquidity. If fundamentals such as the macroeconomy and listed companies' earnings improve, there is ample room for upward movement. However, the realization of this fundamental logic may take time. In the long term, the market is likely to focus on a volatile upward trend, with a gradually rising center. In the medium term, covered call portfolios will continue to be the primary method for generating returns. In the short term, the recent significant gains have also increased the absolute risk in the stock market. With the Shanghai Composite Index nearing its range high, coupled with the tariff window and the upcoming release of July economic data and listed companies' semi-annual reports, it is appropriate to consider buying out-of-the-money put options as a risk management measure.
Treasury bond futures: On Friday, Treasury bond futures saw mixed trading. Unilaterally, based on closing prices, the 30-year bond futures contract fell 0.02%, the 10-year contract rose 0.03%, the 5-year contract rose 0.02%, and the 2-year contract rose 0.01%. The yield on the most active 30-year bond rose 0.9 basis points to 1.921%, the yield on the most active 10-year bond rose 0.35 basis points to 1.691%, and the yield on the most active 2-year bond fell 1 basis point to 1.39%. Inter-product spreads for futures contracts: 4TS-T, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL changed by 0.026 yuan, 0.02 yuan, and 0.11 yuan, respectively. Unilateral strategies: Bond futures continued to fluctuate, with long-term bonds remaining weak. July exports and inflation exceeded expectations. We believe there's a high probability that PPI will bottom out here this year, but the rebound will be limited and insufficient to shake the tone of monetary easing. The bull market in bonds is unlikely to reverse, so we recommend holding a long position in TL2512. Cross-product strategy: The interest rate curve is steep in the short term and flat in the long term. Continue to monitor opportunities for arbitrage opportunities between short (TF) and long (TL). Hedging strategy: As the reinstatement of value-added tax on newly issued government bonds reduces the attractiveness of existing bonds (especially new bonds), the appeal of futures bonds to long positions is increasing, suppressing basis trends. The strategy of replacing existing bonds with long futures positions remains viable in the short term.
Industrial silicon: The market remains subject to macroeconomic sentiment, but volatility is slowing, market speculation is weakening, and spot market quotes are stabilizing. Fundamentally, driven by previously high prices, new construction has recently begun in both the north and south, increasing supply. This, coupled with increased polysilicon production and the resumption of previously suspended silicone production capacity, is leading to a short-term market trend of both supply and demand growth. Overall, the impact of macroeconomic sentiment remains, but its impact is gradually decreasing. Fundamental factors may regain their dominant influence on the market, and market pressure remains. For short-term trading, consider a light short position, with the SI2511 contract trading range at 8,300-8,900 yuan/ton.
Nickel and Stainless Steel: Macroeconomically, the Federal Reserve has recently signaled a series of dovish sentiment, supporting nickel prices. Industrially, the current oversupply of pure nickel persists, resulting in limited spot trading. Indonesian intermediate products continue to be released, but salt mills remain resolute in maintaining prices. This has led to relatively stable prices amidst upstream and downstream market dynamics. Nickel ore transactions remain limited, primarily due to low purchasing interest in the downstream ferronickel sector amid losses. While ferronickel prices have strengthened, downstream stainless steel purchasing interest remains relatively weak. Regarding stainless steel, continued declines in social inventories are providing support, coupled with stronger ferronickel support on the cost side. In the short term, downward pressure on stainless steel may ease. Trading in nickel and stainless steel is recommended. The reference range for Shanghai Nickel 2509 is 115,000-125,000 yuan/ton. The reference range for SS2509 is 12,500-13,500 yuan/ton.
Rebar: Last week, average daily hot metal production declined slightly, but steel inventories accumulated significantly, suggesting strong supply and weak demand, cooling steel market sentiment. Rebar production increased by 101,200 tons month-over-month, while social rebar inventories increased by 43,400 tons. Mill inventories accumulated by 60,500 tons, and apparent demand increased by 73,800 tons to 2.1079 million tons. Supply and demand imbalances are beginning to emerge for construction steel. However, the anticipated disruption from production restrictions and the resilience of cost support amidst the strength of the coke and coke markets suggest that prices for construction steel may fluctuate and remain weak in the short term.
Hot-rolled coil (HCR): On the industry front, data from China Steel Union shows that HRC production decreased by 79,000 tons last week, with accumulated inventory reaching 86,800 tons. Apparent demand fell by 137,900 tons to 3,062,100 tons. Currently, HRC fundamentals continue to weaken amidst a weak supply and demand environment, with inventories increasing at an accelerating rate. This weakening reality continues to weigh on HRC prices, but ongoing production restrictions pose downward pressure. We anticipate continued wide fluctuations in HRC prices, and we should monitor steel mill production.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.26%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.38%, the STAR Market 50 Index fell 1.39%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.24%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.33%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.22%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.35%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1,710.227 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 115.263 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan primary sectors, the best performing sectors were: General Purpose (1.56%), Building Materials (1.16%), and Building Decoration (1.14%). The worst performing sectors were: Computers (-2.38%), Electronics (-1.15%), and Media (-0.96%). Regarding basis, the IH and IF basis weakened slightly, while the IC and IM basis strengthened slightly. The annualized basis rates for the IH and IF quarterly contracts are -0.30% and -3.60%, respectively; while the annualized basis rates for the IC and IM quarterly contracts are -11.30% and -12.00%, respectively. For hedging purposes, quarterly and monthly contracts may be considered for short positions. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fluctuated within a narrow range last trading day, closing slightly lower and experiencing a decline in trading volume. Cyclical sectors such as construction, building materials, and steel performed strongly, while technology and financial sectors declined, leading to a rapid rotation of short-term funds. Over the weekend, the National Bureau of Statistics released inflation data, showing that the CPI remained flat year-on-year and the PPI continued to decline, but the year-on-year decline remained flat and the month-on-month decline narrowed. This week is approaching the expiration of the 90-day suspension of US-China tariffs on August 12. Depending on the progress of the second round of US-China negotiations, relevant details may be disclosed in the near future. This may have a relatively short-term impact on the stock market and warrants continued monitoring. In August, the interim reports of listed companies will be disclosed one after another. The moderately loose monetary policy since September last year is expected to continue to reduce the short-term operating and financing costs of enterprises, and corporate profits are expected to pick up. The two-way recovery in profits and valuations may prompt small and medium-sized stocks to perform better than the broader market. It is recommended to maintain long positions in IC and IM.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.26%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.38%, the STAR Market 50 Index fell 1.39%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.24%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.33%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.22%, the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.35%, and the SZSE 100 ETF fell 0.24%. Trading volume across the two markets totaled 1.710227 trillion yuan, down approximately 115.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level sectors, the best-performing were comprehensive (1.56%), building materials (1.16%), and building decoration (1.14%). The worst-performing were media (-0.96%), electronics (-1.15%), and computers (-2.38%). The stock market performance from late June to July was largely driven by a valuation correction driven by policies and liquidity. If fundamentals such as the macroeconomy and listed companies' earnings improve, there is ample room for upward movement. However, the realization of this fundamental logic may take time. In the long term, the market is likely to focus on a volatile upward trend, with a gradually rising center. In the medium term, covered call portfolios will continue to be the primary method for generating returns. In the short term, the recent significant gains have also increased the absolute risk in the stock market. With the Shanghai Composite Index nearing its range high, coupled with the tariff window and the upcoming release of July economic data and listed companies' semi-annual reports, it is appropriate to consider buying out-of-the-money put options as a risk management measure.
Treasury bond futures: On Friday, Treasury bond futures saw mixed trading. Unilaterally, based on closing prices, the 30-year bond futures contract fell 0.02%, the 10-year contract rose 0.03%, the 5-year contract rose 0.02%, and the 2-year contract rose 0.01%. The yield on the most active 30-year bond rose 0.9 basis points to 1.921%, the yield on the most active 10-year bond rose 0.35 basis points to 1.691%, and the yield on the most active 2-year bond fell 1 basis point to 1.39%. Inter-product spreads for futures contracts: 4TS-T, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL changed by 0.026 yuan, 0.02 yuan, and 0.11 yuan, respectively. Unilateral strategies: Bond futures continued to fluctuate, with long-term bonds remaining weak. July exports and inflation exceeded expectations. We believe there's a high probability that PPI will bottom out here this year, but the rebound will be limited and insufficient to shake the tone of monetary easing. The bull market in bonds is unlikely to reverse, so we recommend holding a long position in TL2512. Cross-product strategy: The interest rate curve is steep in the short term and flat in the long term. Continue to monitor opportunities for arbitrage opportunities between short (TF) and long (TL). Hedging strategy: As the reinstatement of value-added tax on newly issued government bonds reduces the attractiveness of existing bonds (especially new bonds), the appeal of futures bonds to long positions is increasing, suppressing basis trends. The strategy of replacing existing bonds with long futures positions remains viable in the short term.
Industrial silicon: The market remains subject to macroeconomic sentiment, but volatility is slowing, market speculation is weakening, and spot market quotes are stabilizing. Fundamentally, driven by previously high prices, new construction has recently begun in both the north and south, increasing supply. This, coupled with increased polysilicon production and the resumption of previously suspended silicone production capacity, is leading to a short-term market trend of both supply and demand growth. Overall, the impact of macroeconomic sentiment remains, but its impact is gradually decreasing. Fundamental factors may regain their dominant influence on the market, and market pressure remains. For short-term trading, consider a light short position, with the SI2511 contract trading range at 8,300-8,900 yuan/ton.
Nickel and Stainless Steel: Macroeconomically, the Federal Reserve has recently signaled a series of dovish sentiment, supporting nickel prices. Industrially, the current oversupply of pure nickel persists, resulting in limited spot trading. Indonesian intermediate products continue to be released, but salt mills remain resolute in maintaining prices. This has led to relatively stable prices amidst upstream and downstream market dynamics. Nickel ore transactions remain limited, primarily due to low purchasing interest in the downstream ferronickel sector amid losses. While ferronickel prices have strengthened, downstream stainless steel purchasing interest remains relatively weak. Regarding stainless steel, continued declines in social inventories are providing support, coupled with stronger ferronickel support on the cost side. In the short term, downward pressure on stainless steel may ease. Trading in nickel and stainless steel is recommended. The reference range for Shanghai Nickel 2509 is 115,000-125,000 yuan/ton. The reference range for SS2509 is 12,500-13,500 yuan/ton.
Rebar: Last week, average daily hot metal production declined slightly, but steel inventories accumulated significantly, suggesting strong supply and weak demand, cooling steel market sentiment. Rebar production increased by 101,200 tons month-over-month, while social rebar inventories increased by 43,400 tons. Mill inventories accumulated by 60,500 tons, and apparent demand increased by 73,800 tons to 2.1079 million tons. Supply and demand imbalances are beginning to emerge for construction steel. However, the anticipated disruption from production restrictions and the resilience of cost support amidst the strength of the coke and coke markets suggest that prices for construction steel may fluctuate and remain weak in the short term.
Hot-rolled coil (HCR): On the industry front, data from China Steel Union shows that HRC production decreased by 79,000 tons last week, with accumulated inventory reaching 86,800 tons. Apparent demand fell by 137,900 tons to 3,062,100 tons. Currently, HRC fundamentals continue to weaken amidst a weak supply and demand environment, with inventories increasing at an accelerating rate. This weakening reality continues to weigh on HRC prices, but ongoing production restrictions pose downward pressure. We anticipate continued wide fluctuations in HRC prices, and we should monitor steel mill production.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
