CITIC Construction Investment Futures: Tangshan production restrictions implemented, steel futures fluctuated and strengthened
2025-08-12 11:08:36
Rebar: Hot-rolled coil (HCR) futures rebounded following the announcement of production restrictions in Tangshan and the continued upward trend in coke and molten iron futures. Supply is expected to have minimal impact in the short term, and market sentiment remains positive, with trading gradually improving. Last week, rebar production increased by 101,200 tons month-over-month, while social rebar inventories increased by 43,400 tons. Mill inventories accumulated by 60,500 tons, and apparent demand increased by 73,800 tons to 2.1079 million tons. Supply and demand imbalances are beginning to emerge for construction steel. However, the positive factors include the anticipated disruption from production restrictions and the resilience of cost support from the strength of coke and molten iron. Construction steel prices are likely to fluctuate strongly in the short term.
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Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC): On the industry front, data from China Steel Union shows that HRC production decreased by 79,000 tons last week, with accumulated inventory reaching 86,800 tons. Apparent demand fell by 137,900 tons to 3,062,100 tons. Currently, HRC fundamentals continue to weaken amidst a weak supply and demand environment, with inventories increasing at a faster pace. This weak reality continues to weigh on HRC prices, but ongoing production restrictions present downward pressure. We anticipate continued wide fluctuations in HRC prices, with attention being paid to steel mill production conditions. Strategically, the 2510 rebar contract is targeted at the 3150-3300 price range, while the 2510 HRC contract is targeted at the 3350-3500 price range.
Soda Ash: Soda ash futures rose slightly on Monday, while spot prices remained stable to declining. Commodity markets saw more gains than losses on Monday, with improved market sentiment. Fundamentally, with recent soda ash maintenance schedules reduced, soda ash production increased by 45,000 tons month-over-month to 745,000 tons last week. Production has recently rebounded to high levels, increasing supply-side pressure. Downstream demand declined slightly month-over-month. Latest soda ash plant inventories increased by 11,000 tons month-over-month to 1.876 million tons from Thursday, and latest delivery warehouse inventories increased by 63,300 tons from the previous week to 449,300 tons. Last week, float glass production lines remained unchanged, with one photovoltaic glass line undergoing cold shutdown. Last week, one float glass line was started up. The combined daily melting capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has recently declined slightly. Heavy soda ash demand has remained stable with a slight decline, while light soda ash demand has remained temporarily stable, weakening purchasing activity in the midstream and downstream sectors. Soda ash imports fell to 1,000 tons in June, while exports dipped slightly to 157,000 tons, a slight decline in exports. On the macro level, recent domestic real estate sales data has declined month-on-month, remaining below the same period last year. Foreign macroeconomic factors are relatively neutral (the US dollar index has risen, and concerns about trade frictions are growing). Domestic policy expectations have cooled, weakening the macroeconomic impact. Overall, this suggests an increase in soda ash supply in the short term.
Glass: Glass futures rose slightly on Monday, while spot prices mostly fell. Short-term glass fundamentals remain largely unchanged, with demand slightly declining month-over-month. Last week, glass production saw a slight increase, while downstream purchasing activity declined, leading to a month-over-month increase in inventory. The latest glass inventory increased by 117,000 tons to 3.092 million tons, a year-over-year decrease of 8.18%. Glass production lines remained unchanged last week; one line resumed production last week. Daily glass melting capacity has recently increased slightly, with the latest operating daily melting capacity at 159,575 tons/day, a year-over-year decrease of approximately 6.0%. Domestic housing completion area decreased by approximately 15% year-over-year from January to June (the decline narrowed), and recent real estate sales data declined month-over-month, falling below the same period last year. Glass deep processing orders increased by 0.2 days month-over-month to 9.5 days, a year-over-year decrease of 1.6%. In the short term, glass supply is slightly increasing, while demand is stable but slightly declining. Near-month contracts are facing some pressure and are temporarily experiencing weak fluctuations. In the short term, glass futures prices are expected to consolidate weakly. The intraday reference price for FG2509 is 1050-1100.
Caustic Soda: Caustic Soda futures rebounded significantly on Monday, while spot prices remained largely stable. Short-term caustic soda fundamentals are neutral. With limited recent maintenance plans, caustic soda production increased by 11,000 tons to 833,000 tons last week, leading to a slight increase in downstream demand. Inventories at liquid caustic soda producers increased by 38,000 tons month-over-month to 462,000 tons, a 17.1% year-over-year increase. Recently, alumina production, a downstream component of caustic soda, saw a slight increase month-over-month, while viscose staple fiber utilization rates rose, contributing to a slight month-over-month increase in downstream demand. June caustic soda exports reached 351,000 tons, a significant year-over-year increase and a slight month-over-month increase. Short-term caustic soda fundamentals remain largely unchanged, leading to temporary price fluctuations. Caustic soda futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the SH2509 futures index trading in the 2400-2600 range. Weak demand and reduced policy expectations have led to a return to fundamentals in the near term, resulting in temporary weak fluctuations. Regarding warehouse receipts, soda ash warrants remained stable at 7,715 on Monday. In the short term, the soda ash futures price is weak and consolidated, and the SA2509 intraday reference range is 1240-1280.
Methanol spot prices are 2095 in Daqi, 2250 in Luoyang, and 2330 in northern Shandong. Upstream factories are primarily trading at a premium, with sell orders supporting prices and fair trading volume. In the short term, spot coal prices continue to rise, while upstream margins have narrowed slightly but remain high. Recent increases in takeout and supporting facilities have resulted in relatively low overall inventory pressures. Traders are showing little demand for short selling during the market cycle, with on-hand inventories at a moderate level. End-user demand is sluggish, while downstream companies are urgently replenishing. Freight rates have increased slightly due to a lack of return trips and transportation requirements around Beijing. On Monday, the spot basis in East China was between 09-10, with the basis below 9 at 09+27, maintaining this basis. Shipments from Iran are concentrated, and with large olefins plants at ports shut down, inventory accumulation is expected to continue. Currently, the market is returning to fundamental supply and demand, driven by regional supply and demand. While there is some support, upward momentum is lacking. In terms of operation, methanol is on the sidelines in the short term, with the reference range of methanol 2601 being 2450-2450 yuan/ton.
Urea: Spot prices in Shandong are 1,750 yuan/ton ex-factory, while those in Henan are 1,730-1,780 yuan/ton. Domestic market quotations have seen limited fluctuation. As of August 11th, the urea industry produced 193,000 tons per day, an increase of 22,400 tons year-on-year, maintaining a daily output of over 190,000 tons. Regarding demand, autumn fertilizer demand is lower than in spring, and demand from other industries is also tepid. Urea exports have continued to be orderly, but spot prices remain relatively weak. Overall, with significant additional capacity expected, expectations are deviating, leading to a period of weak and volatile trading. In terms of short-term trading, consider a wait-and-see approach for urea. The reference range for urea 2601 is 1,700-1,800 yuan/ton.
Rubber: On Monday, domestic full latex was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Raw materials: Yesterday, Thai rubber closed at 54.0 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Thai cup rubber closed at 48.65 baht/kg, up 0.30 baht/kg from the previous day; Yunnan rubber closed at 14.0 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Hainan rubber closed at 13.2 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day. As of August 10, 2025, the combined bonded and general trade inventories of natural rubber in Qingdao were 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons, or 1.89%, from the previous period. Bonded area inventories reached 75,300 tons, a decrease of 0.24%; general trade inventories reached 544,600 tons, a decrease of 2.11%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 0.81 percentage points, while the outbound rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, while the outbound rate increased by 0.25 percentage points. Viewpoint: Southeast Asian production areas such as Thailand and domestic production areas are still in the rainy season, and the incessant rain continues to impact rubber tapping operations. Côte d'Ivoire has entered the dry season with less rain, and rubber tapping is expected to be relatively normal. Weather conditions in global production areas have not changed significantly beyond expectations and remain in line with seasonal conditions. On the demand side, production activity in the domestic tire industry has remained relatively stable, with all-steel tire companies showing relatively better performance. A limited recovery in downstream industries is expected. The balance sheet is improving, and expectations are being met. With the improvement in short-term market expectations, RU and NR are rebounding. Looking ahead, since China's market demand accounts for approximately 20-25% of global demand, the improvement in the overall balance will be relatively small, and the rebound is expected to be limited.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.46%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.96%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 0.59%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.43%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.03%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.08%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.55%, and the SZSE 100 ETF rose 1.42%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 1,826.973 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 116.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan First-Level Sectors, the best-performing sectors were power equipment (2.04%), communications (1.95%), and computers (1.94%). The worst-performing sectors were coal (-0.35%), petroleum and petrochemicals (-0.41%), and banks (-1.01%). The stock market performance from late June to July was largely driven by a valuation correction driven by policies and liquidity. If fundamentals such as the macroeconomy and listed companies' earnings improve, there is ample room for upward movement. However, the realization of this fundamental logic may take time. In the long term, the market is likely to focus on a volatile upward trend, with a gradually rising center. In the medium term, covered call portfolios will continue to be the primary method for generating returns. In the short term, the recent significant gains have also increased the absolute risk in the stock market. With the Shanghai Composite Index nearing its range high, coupled with the tariff window and the upcoming release of July economic data and listed companies' semi-annual reports, it is appropriate to consider buying out-of-the-money put options as a risk management measure.
Stock Index Futures: Treasury bond futures fell on Monday. Unilaterally, based on closing prices, the 30-year contract fell 0.55%, the 10-year contract fell 0.11%, the 5-year contract fell 0.08%, and the 2-year contract fell 0.01%. The yield on the most active 30-year Treasury bond rose 3.5 basis points to 1.956%, the yield on the most active 10-year bond rose 2.65 basis points to 1.7175%, and the yield on the most active 2-year bond rose 1 basis point to 1.4%. Inter-product spreads for futures: 4TS-T, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL changed by 0.091 yuan, -0.055 yuan, and 0.305 yuan, respectively. Unilateral strategies: Bond futures fell again, with long-term bonds seeing the largest decline, driven by renewed anti-involutionary expectations and clear signs of a bottoming out in July inflation data. With CPI still far from its target, monetary policy will likely maintain an accommodative tone. We believe the medium- to long-term bull market for bonds remains intact, but rising inflation expectations may dampen bullish sentiment. We recommend a wait-and-see approach in the short term. A cross-product strategy: The interest rate curve is short-term steep and long-term flat. We await a cooling of inflation expectations before engaging in a short-term (TF)/long-term (TL) arbitrage strategy. Hedging strategies: Basis remains elevated, and unilateral sentiment remains weak. We do not recommend any hedging strategies at this time.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
https://upload.fx678img.com/upload/ht/20250812/2025081210291333.jpg
Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC): On the industry front, data from China Steel Union shows that HRC production decreased by 79,000 tons last week, with accumulated inventory reaching 86,800 tons. Apparent demand fell by 137,900 tons to 3,062,100 tons. Currently, HRC fundamentals continue to weaken amidst a weak supply and demand environment, with inventories increasing at a faster pace. This weak reality continues to weigh on HRC prices, but ongoing production restrictions present downward pressure. We anticipate continued wide fluctuations in HRC prices, with attention being paid to steel mill production conditions. Strategically, the 2510 rebar contract is targeted at the 3150-3300 price range, while the 2510 HRC contract is targeted at the 3350-3500 price range.
Soda Ash: Soda ash futures rose slightly on Monday, while spot prices remained stable to declining. Commodity markets saw more gains than losses on Monday, with improved market sentiment. Fundamentally, with recent soda ash maintenance schedules reduced, soda ash production increased by 45,000 tons month-over-month to 745,000 tons last week. Production has recently rebounded to high levels, increasing supply-side pressure. Downstream demand declined slightly month-over-month. Latest soda ash plant inventories increased by 11,000 tons month-over-month to 1.876 million tons from Thursday, and latest delivery warehouse inventories increased by 63,300 tons from the previous week to 449,300 tons. Last week, float glass production lines remained unchanged, with one photovoltaic glass line undergoing cold shutdown. Last week, one float glass line was started up. The combined daily melting capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has recently declined slightly. Heavy soda ash demand has remained stable with a slight decline, while light soda ash demand has remained temporarily stable, weakening purchasing activity in the midstream and downstream sectors. Soda ash imports fell to 1,000 tons in June, while exports dipped slightly to 157,000 tons, a slight decline in exports. On the macro level, recent domestic real estate sales data has declined month-on-month, remaining below the same period last year. Foreign macroeconomic factors are relatively neutral (the US dollar index has risen, and concerns about trade frictions are growing). Domestic policy expectations have cooled, weakening the macroeconomic impact. Overall, this suggests an increase in soda ash supply in the short term.
Glass: Glass futures rose slightly on Monday, while spot prices mostly fell. Short-term glass fundamentals remain largely unchanged, with demand slightly declining month-over-month. Last week, glass production saw a slight increase, while downstream purchasing activity declined, leading to a month-over-month increase in inventory. The latest glass inventory increased by 117,000 tons to 3.092 million tons, a year-over-year decrease of 8.18%. Glass production lines remained unchanged last week; one line resumed production last week. Daily glass melting capacity has recently increased slightly, with the latest operating daily melting capacity at 159,575 tons/day, a year-over-year decrease of approximately 6.0%. Domestic housing completion area decreased by approximately 15% year-over-year from January to June (the decline narrowed), and recent real estate sales data declined month-over-month, falling below the same period last year. Glass deep processing orders increased by 0.2 days month-over-month to 9.5 days, a year-over-year decrease of 1.6%. In the short term, glass supply is slightly increasing, while demand is stable but slightly declining. Near-month contracts are facing some pressure and are temporarily experiencing weak fluctuations. In the short term, glass futures prices are expected to consolidate weakly. The intraday reference price for FG2509 is 1050-1100.
Caustic Soda: Caustic Soda futures rebounded significantly on Monday, while spot prices remained largely stable. Short-term caustic soda fundamentals are neutral. With limited recent maintenance plans, caustic soda production increased by 11,000 tons to 833,000 tons last week, leading to a slight increase in downstream demand. Inventories at liquid caustic soda producers increased by 38,000 tons month-over-month to 462,000 tons, a 17.1% year-over-year increase. Recently, alumina production, a downstream component of caustic soda, saw a slight increase month-over-month, while viscose staple fiber utilization rates rose, contributing to a slight month-over-month increase in downstream demand. June caustic soda exports reached 351,000 tons, a significant year-over-year increase and a slight month-over-month increase. Short-term caustic soda fundamentals remain largely unchanged, leading to temporary price fluctuations. Caustic soda futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the SH2509 futures index trading in the 2400-2600 range. Weak demand and reduced policy expectations have led to a return to fundamentals in the near term, resulting in temporary weak fluctuations. Regarding warehouse receipts, soda ash warrants remained stable at 7,715 on Monday. In the short term, the soda ash futures price is weak and consolidated, and the SA2509 intraday reference range is 1240-1280.
Methanol spot prices are 2095 in Daqi, 2250 in Luoyang, and 2330 in northern Shandong. Upstream factories are primarily trading at a premium, with sell orders supporting prices and fair trading volume. In the short term, spot coal prices continue to rise, while upstream margins have narrowed slightly but remain high. Recent increases in takeout and supporting facilities have resulted in relatively low overall inventory pressures. Traders are showing little demand for short selling during the market cycle, with on-hand inventories at a moderate level. End-user demand is sluggish, while downstream companies are urgently replenishing. Freight rates have increased slightly due to a lack of return trips and transportation requirements around Beijing. On Monday, the spot basis in East China was between 09-10, with the basis below 9 at 09+27, maintaining this basis. Shipments from Iran are concentrated, and with large olefins plants at ports shut down, inventory accumulation is expected to continue. Currently, the market is returning to fundamental supply and demand, driven by regional supply and demand. While there is some support, upward momentum is lacking. In terms of operation, methanol is on the sidelines in the short term, with the reference range of methanol 2601 being 2450-2450 yuan/ton.
Urea: Spot prices in Shandong are 1,750 yuan/ton ex-factory, while those in Henan are 1,730-1,780 yuan/ton. Domestic market quotations have seen limited fluctuation. As of August 11th, the urea industry produced 193,000 tons per day, an increase of 22,400 tons year-on-year, maintaining a daily output of over 190,000 tons. Regarding demand, autumn fertilizer demand is lower than in spring, and demand from other industries is also tepid. Urea exports have continued to be orderly, but spot prices remain relatively weak. Overall, with significant additional capacity expected, expectations are deviating, leading to a period of weak and volatile trading. In terms of short-term trading, consider a wait-and-see approach for urea. The reference range for urea 2601 is 1,700-1,800 yuan/ton.
Rubber: On Monday, domestic full latex was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Raw materials: Yesterday, Thai rubber closed at 54.0 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Thai cup rubber closed at 48.65 baht/kg, up 0.30 baht/kg from the previous day; Yunnan rubber closed at 14.0 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Hainan rubber closed at 13.2 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day. As of August 10, 2025, the combined bonded and general trade inventories of natural rubber in Qingdao were 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons, or 1.89%, from the previous period. Bonded area inventories reached 75,300 tons, a decrease of 0.24%; general trade inventories reached 544,600 tons, a decrease of 2.11%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 0.81 percentage points, while the outbound rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, while the outbound rate increased by 0.25 percentage points. Viewpoint: Southeast Asian production areas such as Thailand and domestic production areas are still in the rainy season, and the incessant rain continues to impact rubber tapping operations. Côte d'Ivoire has entered the dry season with less rain, and rubber tapping is expected to be relatively normal. Weather conditions in global production areas have not changed significantly beyond expectations and remain in line with seasonal conditions. On the demand side, production activity in the domestic tire industry has remained relatively stable, with all-steel tire companies showing relatively better performance. A limited recovery in downstream industries is expected. The balance sheet is improving, and expectations are being met. With the improvement in short-term market expectations, RU and NR are rebounding. Looking ahead, since China's market demand accounts for approximately 20-25% of global demand, the improvement in the overall balance will be relatively small, and the rebound is expected to be limited.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.46%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.96%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 0.59%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.43%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.03%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.08%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.55%, and the SZSE 100 ETF rose 1.42%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 1,826.973 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 116.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan First-Level Sectors, the best-performing sectors were power equipment (2.04%), communications (1.95%), and computers (1.94%). The worst-performing sectors were coal (-0.35%), petroleum and petrochemicals (-0.41%), and banks (-1.01%). The stock market performance from late June to July was largely driven by a valuation correction driven by policies and liquidity. If fundamentals such as the macroeconomy and listed companies' earnings improve, there is ample room for upward movement. However, the realization of this fundamental logic may take time. In the long term, the market is likely to focus on a volatile upward trend, with a gradually rising center. In the medium term, covered call portfolios will continue to be the primary method for generating returns. In the short term, the recent significant gains have also increased the absolute risk in the stock market. With the Shanghai Composite Index nearing its range high, coupled with the tariff window and the upcoming release of July economic data and listed companies' semi-annual reports, it is appropriate to consider buying out-of-the-money put options as a risk management measure.
Stock Index Futures: Treasury bond futures fell on Monday. Unilaterally, based on closing prices, the 30-year contract fell 0.55%, the 10-year contract fell 0.11%, the 5-year contract fell 0.08%, and the 2-year contract fell 0.01%. The yield on the most active 30-year Treasury bond rose 3.5 basis points to 1.956%, the yield on the most active 10-year bond rose 2.65 basis points to 1.7175%, and the yield on the most active 2-year bond rose 1 basis point to 1.4%. Inter-product spreads for futures: 4TS-T, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL changed by 0.091 yuan, -0.055 yuan, and 0.305 yuan, respectively. Unilateral strategies: Bond futures fell again, with long-term bonds seeing the largest decline, driven by renewed anti-involutionary expectations and clear signs of a bottoming out in July inflation data. With CPI still far from its target, monetary policy will likely maintain an accommodative tone. We believe the medium- to long-term bull market for bonds remains intact, but rising inflation expectations may dampen bullish sentiment. We recommend a wait-and-see approach in the short term. A cross-product strategy: The interest rate curve is short-term steep and long-term flat. We await a cooling of inflation expectations before engaging in a short-term (TF)/long-term (TL) arbitrage strategy. Hedging strategies: Basis remains elevated, and unilateral sentiment remains weak. We do not recommend any hedging strategies at this time.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
