The Fed's September rate cut is expected to limit the dollar's gains, and gold prices remain range-bound, waiting for a direction to be determined.
2025-08-15 13:58:58
According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the PPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in July, exceeding market expectations of 2.5% and significantly higher than June's 2.4%. Despite this, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the market still has a 90% probability of expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and expects a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by the end of the year.

In addition, market sentiment was supported by multiple positive factors, including easing trade concerns between the US and Asia and the potential for a ceasefire in the Ukrainian conflict following the US-Russia summit. These factors boosted global risk appetite and limited further gains for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Analysts pointed out that against the backdrop of a rebound in risk appetite, the short-term trend of gold may depend on upcoming data such as US retail sales, the New York Fed manufacturing index and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. These indicators may affect the US dollar trend and indirectly influence gold prices.
Daily chart analysis shows that gold prices encountered significant resistance near the 100-hour moving average (about $3,355), and multiple rebounds failed to break through this position, indicating that short-term selling pressure is still obvious.
If the price breaks through this level, it could potentially test the $3,375 and $3,400 levels. However, a break below the $3,330 support level could trigger an accelerated decline, potentially targeting $3,300 or even lower. Technical indicators show weak daily volatility, and the short-term trend remains downward.

Editor's opinion:
The current rebound in gold is more of a technical correction than a trend reversal. With the lack of sustained buying of the US dollar and expectations of a Fed rate cut stabilizing, gold prices may remain range-bound in the short term.
However, if market risk sentiment further heats up, gold's safe-haven properties may continue to weaken. We need to pay attention to the effectiveness of the $3,330 support. Once it is lost, the downside space will open up quickly.
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